- The teams I had ranked 4 - 9 all failed to make the playoffs. So although my 1, 2, 3 combo of San Diego, New England, and Indianapolis isn't that bad, my 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 combo of Denver, Chicago, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Baltimore looks atrocious. Cincinnati AND Baltimore in the top 10? Six of my top nine, and nine of my top thirteen failed to make the playoffs.
- In theory, the playoffs represent the 12 best teams that the league has to offer. Even if that isn't always accomplished, we can at least agree that the playoffs feature 12 of the best, if not the absolute 12 best teams in the league. Well, here's where I had these elite 12 teams ranked preseason: 31, 23, 21, 20, 19, 18, 16, 14, 10, 3, 2, 1. Considering that you'd have to be completely and utterly hopeless to have passed on the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers preseason, my predictions look even more dismal. My average preseason rank for the 2008 playoff teams: 14.83. Lucky for me (or perhaps incredibly unlucky for him) Don had these same teams ranked an average of 15.416.
- Perhaps the most telling sign of the kind of year that it has been is this: the teams Don and I ranked as the absolute worst in the league finished 18-14. The teams we ranked as the best? Also 18-14. In other words, the collective Don and Mark wisdom couldn't even correctly discern between the best and worst teams in the league this season. If the challenge was to pick two teams and choose one that would absolutely be better than the other, collectively we would have failed. Individually, I would have barely passed this test with the Browns (10-6, nearly playoff worthy) as my preseason 32 and the Chargers (11-5) as my number one. Don actually would have failed, with his preseason 32, the Texans (8-8) outperforming his preseason number one, the Broncos (7-9).
Yes, I understand, hindsight is 20-20, if I knew then what I know now, etc. There are any number of clichés that can describe this phenomenon. My point in all of that is this: I am about to make my predictions for the first round of the playoffs. There is a huge grain of salt to take these with; that grain of salt is, of course, the sparkling record that I have laid out above.
One last thing before I get to my picks: I'm sure that if any non-Patriot stuck his finger into the facemask of Tom Brady, the penalty would be much more severe than a measly $15,000 fine. Not that I'm bitter or anything.
Finally, my picks, with, for kicks, my preseason ranking in parentheses:
(20) Washington Redskins at (10) Seattle Seahawks
The theme for this week is, as you shall see, indecision. Depending on how you look at them, Seattle has been either underwhelming or flying dangerously under the radar. I can't decide which it is. Washington, of course, enters the postseason on a tear, winners of four straight, despite starting 36 year old journeyman Todd Collins at quarterback. Seattle is an incredibly difficult place to play, and I believe more in the Seahawks' home field advantage than in the Redskins momentum. Pick: Seattle 20, Washington 17
(14) Jacksonville Jaguars at (16) Pittsburgh Steelers
I was all set to pick the Jaguars here and move on, but then I noticed that absolutely everyone is taking the Jags in this one. Sure, the Steelers are reeling, in part due to injury, but beating the same team twice on the road (as the Jaguars are trying to do) is not an easy feat. I love the Jaguars' running game, but what happens if they fall behind early? Even so, the Steelers just don't seem like the same team as earlier in the season. Conventional wisdom seems to indicate that without Willie Parker, the Steelers' offense will become one dimensional and unable to control the clock. My gut tells me Jacksonville and as much as I'd like to buck the trend and prove that I'm smarter than everyone else by picking Pittsburgh, I know that I'm not smarter than everyone, so I'll stay with my gut. Pick: Jacksonville 24, Pittsburgh 14
(23) New York Giants at (31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jeff Garcia has been a Giant killer, knocking them out in two of their last three trips to the playoffs (once with Philadelphia and once with San Francisco). The Buccaneers should be rested, while the Giants lost starters in the "meaningless" Patriots game. Plus, there's no way "Unstoppable" Eli Manning will play two good games in a row, especially given that the second game will be on the road in the playoffs. Screw it. Sure, the teams they beat weren't the toughest, but New York is 7-1 on the road this season. After back to back early playoff exits, shouldn't Eli have the experience to finally turn the corner? This game boils down to one simple question: Did last week's hard fought contest give the Giants the swagger to finally turn the team into one that will consistently play up to their ability or was it just another high point to make the inevitable first round playoff exit all the more frustrating? For once, I'm going to be an optimist. Pick: New York 14, Tampa Bay 13
(19) Tennessee Titans at (1) San Diego Chargers
Like the Steelers, the Chargers are a different team than we saw early in the season. Unlike with the Steelers, that's an endorsement - and not a criticism - of the Chargers. Am I nervous about the prospect of watching Norv Turner coach the Chargers in the playoffs? Absolutely. The Chargers are winners of six straight and seem to have turned the corner, whereas the Titans have baffled me all year long, winning games when I thought they shouldn't. Sure, Philip Rivers seems a bit shaky to be at the helm of a playoff team, but considering that his Tennessee counterpart is Vince Young, I feel a little bit better. Pick: San Diego 31, Tennessee 17
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