Divisional Playoff Picks - Saturday

Here are my picks for Saturday's games.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

The first game of the weekend is giving me serious trouble. The Packers have the home field edge, not to mention the extra week for rest and preparation. However, their relative inexperience may cancel out those advantages. What this means is that even more will fall on the shoulders of Brett Favre.
While I like the Seahawks' defense, Matt Hasselbeck's performance was hardly confidence instilling. By my count, he's had three good playoff games to five bad ones over the course of his career. Even worse, Hasselbeck has never had a passer rating of 70 or better in a road playoff game. Not surprisingly, Seattle hasn't won a road playoff game since the 1980's. Hasselbeck aside, the ground game has struggled this year for Seattle. If the Seahawks win, it will more likely be due to their defense than their offense.
As much as I worry about the Packers' inexperience, Hasselbeck still has a few more bad interceptions in him that could prove the difference in this one. Not to say that Favre isn't interception prone, but he's playing his best football in arguably more than a decade. In other words, Favre hasn't been this good since he last went to the Super Bowl. If this game were in Seattle, it would be a different story, but in Green Bay, I can't be confident in the Seahawks.

Pick: Green Bay 24, Seattle 16


Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

This may be the most tempting game of the year. The Patriots' run defense has declined as the season has worn on, and the Jaguars have the running game to exploit that weakness. As a result, the Patriots will try to score early to put the Jaguars in a hole to get them away from the running game. Jacksonville has not won this year when trailing by more than seven points. In short, the game boils down to this: If the Jaguars can keep the game close and control the clock, they'll have a good chance; if not, the Patriots should win.
Of course, throw in the fact that the Patriots will probably have at least a few questionable calls, catches, and/or eye pokes go their way and the Jaguars probably won't have enough to keep pace. The sad thing about that last sentence is that it's only a half-joke; would anyone really be surprised to see the Patriot's "Perfect" season extended another week thanks in part to a dubious penalty or a Jabbar Gaffney "touchdown"? I want to take the Jaguars here (no doubt I'll be rooting for them) but I vowed not to pick against the Patriots again until they lost. Ugh.

Pick: New England 27, Jacksonville 17