- I love reading people's rationale for picking a winner in today's game. But let me say this: that New York pulled off a Giant upset last year (heh, see what I did there?) does not make it all the more likely for the Cardinals to upset this year. How are the two even connected? If anything, shouldn't we expect not to have an upset in two straight Super Bowls? This "New York did, so why not Arizona" logic is probably the worst rationale I've seen so far this year, and that includes the ESPN.com writer who is picking the Cardinals because he thinks that Kurt Warner is some sort of alien sent to earth to win football games.
- The '08 Cardinals remind me of the '06 Colts. Two years ago, I kept picking against the Colts because I thought they were an offensive force who just wouldn't have the necessary defense come playoff time. This is exactly how I feel about the '08 Cardinals. Of course, those Colts proved me wrong in incredible fashion, giving up point totals of 8, 6, 34, and 17 on the way to the title. During that playoff run they played only one game that can be classified as a shootout, and even the 17 points given up to the Bears is a bit misleading, given that 7 of those points were scored on Devin Hester's opening kickoff return. This is a remarkable turnaround for a team that never allowed fewer than 13 points in a game during the entire regular season, and allowed 20 or more a total of 12 times. Let's put it this way: in the regular season, teams scored 20+ points against the Colts 75% of the time. In the postseason, that figure was 25%. This year's Cardinals allowed 20+ 11 times, but have also allowed that figure twice thus far in the postseason. Their defense just hasn't taken that leap yet.
- I want to pick the Cardinals, I'm rooting for them. Last year I picked with my heart, and that worked out ok, I guess.
- You know how when people argue about all-time greats, the 'championship winner' element comes into the discussion at some point? I've been thinking today about how important that really should be to the discussion, relative to particular sports. For instance, I think that being a winner is most important to the legacy of basketball players and much less important to baseball players. I think for football players it should fall somewhere in between. Look at it this way, good football players play about 50% of the game, where as good basketball players often play 80+% of the time. This doesn't relate to today's game at all, just something I had been thinking about.
Ok, for the pick...
If Arizona's defense can step up, they'll have a good shot. The other key will be how effective Warner and Fitzgerald are and how the Steelers adjust to stop them. The biggest question, though, is how the Cardinals will be able to either run or stop the run. I have a hard time seeing them do well enough in both of those areas to pull this one out. This year's pick is with my head, and not my heart.
Pittsburgh 24, Arizona 20
