Preseason NFL Power Rankings

It's that time of year again; nothing says fall like football and the hastily thrown together predictions that come with it. Before I get to the list, a few observations I made along the way:

First, when February rolls around, stop me if I talk myself into picking the NFC champ to win the Super Bowl. All last year I told myself that no matter what happened, I would be taking the AFC in the Super Bowl. Of course, when the big day rolled around, I had somehow talked myself into taking the Bears. Come February, please remind me that the NFC is absolutely NOT winning the Super Bowl. It's just not happening.

Second, I can't come to any easy conclusion about who is the best in the league. Each of the elite teams has at least one major question. Things are looking pretty wide open right now, to an extent, as several teams look like legit contenders This should be a fun year.

Third, I can't come up with a clear cut worst team, either. I miss you already, 2006 Raiders.

Finally, I don't know enough about any of this to make anything that resembles a strong set of predictions. You've been warned.

Here we go:


32. Cleveland Browns - I was a little tentative to put the Browns dead last, but that was before I read that they are a splendid 1-11 in division play over the last two years. Can they make it another year without adding to that stellar win total? I say yes.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Yes, they will be worse than the Falcons. Yes, I still love you Chris Simms, even if you're no longer starting, and even if it's only for your papa.

30. Houston Texans - Here's why the Texans will struggle this year: Benching Ron Dayne (who averaged over 100 yards rushing per start!) in favor of Ahman Green. Also, the rest of the team sucks, too.

29. Miami Dolphins - Can someone please explain to me what, exactly, there is to like about this team? Yet another coaching change? A 37 year-old quarterback with a concussion problem? Ted Ginn Jr.? Their defense should keep them in some games, but I just don't see them pulling many of those games out.

28. Detroit Lions - I wrestled with this spot for a bit before finally going with my gut. Jon Kitna will throw for over 4,000 yards again, but it won't matter.

27. Oakland Raiders - Two overpaid running backs are bound to be better than one, right?

26. Minnesota Vikings - With a remarkable run defense (2.83 yards per carry allowed) and a potential future star in rookie running back Adrian Peterson, there are some things to like in Minnesota. Unfortunately for the Vikings, one of those things is not Tarvaris Jackson.

(I have to mention that the Vikings run defense yielded 111 fewer rushing yards PER GAME than the Colts. The Colts happened to win the Super Bowl last year, while the Vikings won six games. I guess the only things this proves is just how bad the rest of that Vikings squad must be. Anyways, thanks to Sports Illustrated for pointing this out.)

25. Kansas City Chiefs - Larry Johnson only gets you so far.

24. Atlanta Falcons - What I don't understand about the entire Michael Vick saga is why more people aren't pointing out that the "star" quarterback's suspension/arrest/time in exile could actually be a good thing for the team. It isn't as if Vick wasn't already a distraction before the dog fighting scandal became public (Really?), and it also isn't as if Vick was a terribly effective quarterback. In terms of passer rating, Joey Harrington represents only a slight drop off, while Harrington actually has a higher career completion percentage. If they can stay focused, they'll surprise a few teams this year (That means you, Giants).

23. New York Giants - The future of this team actually won't be decided for a few more weeks, when my sister-in-law is due to give birth to her first child. If she and my brother do the right thing and dub their player-to-be-named later 'Osi,' as I have suggested, the Giants will benefit from all sorts of positive karma: Umenyiora will break Strahan's single-season sack record, Eli will turn into Peyton, Coughlin will resign (or better yet, be hired to coach the Cowboys), and a return trip to the playoffs won't be out of the question. However if, as I fear, my brother is not the true Giants fan that I hoped he was, I will be in for a miserable season. It's not often that a team improves after it's best player retires, and this year will be no exception.

22. Buffalo Bills - I have no reason for putting the Bills here other than the fact that I have a bad feeling that when the Bills and Giants play this year, it won't be New York coming out on top.

21. Green Bay - Three points I want to make here: First, it's been said several times before, but why couldn't the Packers have given up a third or fourth round pick to get Randy Moss? With the face of your franchise about to retire, shouldn't you be going all out for one last run at things? Second, I don't see much to like about the Packers, but then again, I didn't last year, either, and they surprised me with an 8-8 finish. In a weak division, there's no reason to think they won't be in the .500 range again this year. Finally, Firefox just crapped out on me, but luckily Blogger now automatically saves drafts so I didn't lose my entire post. Thanks, Blogger!

20. Washington Redskins - With Ladell Betts and Clinton Portis, they should be able to move the ball fairly well along the ground, but with a defensive line that mustered just ten sacks last year, and a defense that as a whole forced just a dozen turnovers last year, I don't see them doing too much.

19. Tennessee Titans - They finished last year on a tear, winning 8 of their last 11, but I don't see them finishing much better than their 8-8 record in 2006. Without many weapons on offense, their success hinges on the development of Vince Young, so don't count on the playoffs just yet for the Titans.

18. Dallas Cowboys - I hate them. There defense will be alright, and they've got some weapons on offense, but with Tony Romo at the helm, I don't see them doing too much damage.

17. Arizona Cardinals - Time for the annual "They look good on paper and could be a sleeper in a weak NFC" bit. True, if Matt Leinart can make use of superb receiving tandem Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, they can make some noise in the West. The problem is, although no team in their division appears dominant, all of them appear solid in what should be the league's most competitive division top to bottom. The problem for the Cardinals is not that they won't be able to compete but that among a division of teams all capable of finishing with 7 to 9 wins, they still figure to end the year at the bottom.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers - I'm not sold on the AFC North, and with the right breaks, any of the North's teams outside of Cleveland could compete for the division. For the Steelers to make a serious run, Big Ben has to rebound from a dismal '06 campaign. Even if that happens, I still think that Pittsburgh is a cut below Cincinnati and Baltimore.

15. Carolina Panthers - Even if you're not too high on them, with four games against Tampa Bay and Atlanta highlighting what should be an altogether not too hard schedule, the Panthers have a shot to get back to the playoffs this year. To get there, they'll need to avoid injuries as well as the inevitable quarterback controversy that will ensue if Jake Delhomme hits any rough patches.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars - With one of the league's best defenses, I'm bound to be high on them. Still, I can't really get an accurate handle on them until we find out if cutting Byron Leftwich really was the best way to resolve an iffy quarterback situation. If their defense can keep it up and if they can continue to run the ball well, they'll have a shot at a wild card in the very competitive AFC, but it remains to be seen how David Garrard will fare in a full season as the starting quarterback.

13. New York Jets - I can't believe that I have them this high. They overachieved like crazy last year, and could be even more talented this year. Of course, they won't have their easy '06 schedule to help them to a surprising record. Mangini did a great job with them last year, but this time around they won't be catching anybody off guard. They'll stay in the playoff hunt this year, but come the post season, they'll be on the outside looking in.

12. St. Louis Rams - Here comes another team that I can't believe I have ranked so highly. But when I look back on my list, which NFC team is good enough to take this spot from them? With arguably the best player in their division in Stephen Jackson, the Rams will be good enough to compete for the NFC West title, and in a weak NFC should be right there in the wild card hunt, too. I'm not as high as most on Marc Bulger, and with health concerns surrounding Torry Holt and with Isaac Bruce now 35 years-old there are just enough question marks surrounding this team to keep me from putting them any higher.

11. San Francisco 49ers - Better than the Rams, but not quite ready to jump the Seahawks for the top spot in the West. Like St. Louis and Seattle, the 49ers aren't without their share of question marks but they should continue to steadily improve. True, they overpaid for Nate Clements, but along with other free agent signings the defense should be improved this year. If Frank Gore stays healthy and Alex Smith can continues to progress, the 49ers can make their way back to the playoffs.

10. Seattle Seahawks - The fact that I copped out and ranked three NFC West teams back-to-back-to-back should tell you how I feel about this division. They're no longer an elite team, but Seattle should have enough talent to grab nine wins and possibly a division title.

9. Baltimore Ravens - Unlike last year, I won't be caught off guard by the Ravens this year. Also unlike last year, the Ravens won't be enjoying a 13 win season. Their defense, tops in the league last season, will still be good, even without Adalius Thomas. Still, with some of their key players on the wrong side of 30, I can't help but feel that the Ravens will fall a bit this year, even if - and this is a big if - McNair and McGahee can each stay healthy for a full 16 games.

8. Philadelphia Eagles - Don't ask me where my unlikely love affair with the Eagles came from; I don't know either. With the best player (Brian Westbrook) and the best quarterback (Donovan McNabb) in their division, an NFC East title is well within reach.

7. Cincinnati Bengals - A few points to make here: First, with last year's distraction of having half of their team thrown in jail hopefully behind them, the Bengals should be ready to rebound from a disappointing 2006 season. Next, if you write off last season as Carson Palmer's readjustment year coming off of knee surgery, the offense can reasonably be expected to perform even better this year. Finally, throw in my aforementioned expected decline of the Ravens, and there is no reason why the Bengals can't win this division, unless you count 'lack of defense' as a reason, which, apparently, I don't.

6. New Orleans Saints - Armed with a great head coach in Sean Payton, a relatively weak division, and an explosive offense, the Saints should be able to make some noise again this year.

5. Chicago Bears - I was high on the Bears all last season because I'm a big believer that defense wins championships. Well, since last year, two things have happened. First, I was proved wrong in the Super Bowl. Second, the Bears didn't do anything this off-season that makes me believe they'll be any better than last year. So in short, they'll be good enough again to go deep into the playoffs against NFC foes, but they aren't good enough to challenge the AFC's elite.

4. Denver Broncos - I'm not the biggest Denver fan, but it's hard to look past the fact that this team is competitive year in and year out. Throw in arguably the best cornerback tandem in the league on a defense that began last season as one of the league's best and an offense that always seems to churn out productive running backs, and the Broncos should be in good shape this year. Were it not for the fact that they are relying on a relatively green Jay Cutler at quarterback, the Broncos might be good enough to crack the top three.

3. Indianapolis Colts - Not to disrespect the reigning champs, but their apparent biggest weakness, and reason I felt they couldn't win the championship last year - their defense - hasn't gotten any better this year. It goes without saying that their offense will be among the league's best - they'll be able to score on anyone - but without improvement to the defense, they certainly won't be repeating.

2. New England Patriots - Were it not for the suspension to Rodney Harrison and the injury to Richard Seymour, I'd likely have them ranked first overall. However, these few early loses on a defense that underachieved last year is enough to give me pause before ranking them number one. Along with the Chargers and Colts, the Patriots are among the three elite teams in the NFL this season, and should have a great chance to get to the Super Bowl, assuming Harrison and Seymour return in decent form. The biggest X factor in New England is Randy Moss, who has the potential (read, potential, not guarantee) to provide a big boost to the Pats offense, and all for a measly 4th round pick.

1. San Diego Chargers - As much as it pains me to place a Norv Turner led team first, three facts give me a small bit of comfort. First, the Chargers were the best team in the regular season in 2006. Second, they'll return 20 opening day starters from that 14-2 2006 team. Finally, they still have LT, the game's best player. Can Norv Turner mess this up? Absolutely. But is there any better choice for number one? None that I can see.