Well, its a new NFL football season, and that means my preseason Power Rankings need to be released, so here we go. Just remember, when it comes to football I seem to know basically nothing, and that will show when a team like Oakland or Atlanta makes the playoffs, and I have them in the basement. Ah well, thats just how it goes.
32. Atlanta Falcons: As soon as they gave up on the Joey Harrington experience, I knew I had no choice to put them at 32. They are starting a rookie QB who I think is extremely overrated in BJ Ryan. They have, what I consider, a subpar running game, and their best WR is Roddy White (no offense to him, he's just not that great). The worst part, however, is that their defense doesn't make up for these weaknesses. This will be the second year in the Michael Vick recovery period, and who knows how long it will last. (Predicted Record: 2-14)
31. Oakland Raiders: I don't exactly know what to think about this team. I want to think that this is the year Oakland turns it around. However, Darren McFadden is surprisingly part of the reason why I don't think they will. They had a top 10 running back in the NFL last year in Justin Fargas, and suddenly he is second fiddle. He is the only good player on this Oakland team, and putting him on the sideline is going to hurt them greatly. Don't get me wrong, though.. McFadden is an amazing player, but he isn't Adrian Peterson and he doesn't have the Minnesota o-line, so don't expect that change to be immediate (Predicted Record: 4-12)
30. San Francisco 49ers: What a difference a single year makes. Last year this was the trendy pick for a team to make a massive improvement into the playoffs. This season, they are instead hyped as the bottom of the barrel of a somewhat strong NFC West (more like densely mediocre). Is it possible that this Frank Gore led team could land somewhere between great and horrible, of course. However, when nearly every NFL team has strengths, the 49ers just don't have enough of them to survive. (Predicted Record: 5-11)
29. Chicago Bears: I should only need to say one name to explain this position: Kyle Orton. They could have the single greatest defense every assembled (which they don't), and it wouldn't matter. This may be the worst offense I have seen in a long time, with a rookie RB, mediocre WR's, and an atrocious QB. The fact that this alone didn't put them at the very bottom just shows that their defense must be somewhat good. (Predicted Record: 4-12)
28. Houston Texans: Everyone believes this team is up and coming. They are an elite team with the future ahead of them. Everyone believes this... except me. Maybe its my natural hatred for Schaub (only because he replaced my boy Carr), or the fact that I believe an NFL team needs to have a RB on the roster. But yeah, don't fall into the hype. This is in no way an 8-8 team, and last year was an outlier. They will return back to normal soon enough, and be a team that only looks at the future. (Predicted Record: 4-12)
27. Buffalo Bills: Oh god, I better remember to lock my door at night. If there is one thing I have learned about Buffalo fans, is that for some bizarre reason they have crazy optimism (the exact opposite problem as Giants fans I know). Everywhere you go, you here that this is a great Bills team, a wildcard team, and the best defense ever. Well, while there defense has some strengths, their cornerbacks aren't anything special and their Linebacker crew is very overrated (in particular that schmo Paulozny). Also, I am not one of the people drinking the Edwards kool-aid, because I remember when we heard the exact same things about Loss-man. Lynch is amazing, I don't want underemphasis that (although I don't like him as a person, thanks to that hit and run joke). Ah well, just don't get your hopes up to high Bills fan, because then it will be more painful. (Predicted Record: 6-10)
26. Kansas City Chiefs: Hold on while I look up the QB of this team... No, I seriously had to look it up because the Chiefs are just that far off my radar. It seems its Brody Croyle, a player who I know nothing about, headlining a team I know nothing about. I know they have Larry Johnson though, and if hes healthy that makes them better than these six teams below them. I also know they traded their best defensive player, so that can't help. So yeah, in the end, I am just throwing the Chiefs here because right now I just know so little about them (Predicted Record: 5-11)
25. Detroit Lions: Dear lord, how can a young up and coming team be starting Jon Kitna. They have my boy still as the backup... Let Orlovsky play. I had a Madden season once when he started, and he was amazing (ok, so what if that means nothing in the real world?) But yeah, on to actual reasons for why the Lions won't improve too much. They have a decent defense, nothing to scoff at, but overly cheer for either. WR wise, they have one of the most underrated WR (Roy Williams) and one of the most overrated WR's (Calvin Johnson), so I don't know how to handle that. My big problem with the Lions, however, that they could end up running a 3-back system, and that is just one too many. Picking up Rudi Johnson could be a great decision, or one that backfires horribly. It will probably be the second case, only because of the Lions recent post Barry Sanders history. (Predicted Record: 5-11)
24. Tennessee Titans: The fact that this was a playoff team last year still amazes me. Their roster really hasn't gotten weaker sense that playoff appearance, and yet this team still does not like like an 8 win team. At no single position am I impressed, except for Kicker, and well great kicker does NOT equal playoff team. Maybe this team will amaze again, but as an Indy fan I am not at all afraid of this Titans team, and I expect them to fall back down to earth this season, as I am sure that last season must've had some heavenly intervention for them to even make it to the postseason. (Predicted Record: 6-10)
23. Miami Dolphins: Maybe this a little too high, and maybe Buffalo fans will get even more outraged when I have them at the bottom of the division. But I think Miami is moving in the right direction. I love their 65-35 system of Ronnie Brown (maybe the most underrated RB if he is healthy) and the return of Ricky Williams. They have a smart QB who will utilize the field in Chad Pennington, and their defense took a hit with Taylor's departure, they still have a decent secondary and linebackers. I expect this team to surprise a lot people, including the Jets week 1 (Predicted Record: 7-9)
22. Cleveland Browns: Derek Anderson is like a one night stand. Last season, everyone completely loved him, and he was an amazing player. This year, he is just like old news. Oh sure, you talk highly of them, but in truth you barely care. Anderson's night of being coveted is over, and now the love is gone. First, I'd like to thank you for reading that horrible metaphor, and realize that the Browns had one amazing season. Similar to the Titans they will fall back to earth and fast. Plus their RB's is like 80 in power runningback years, so I don't expect Jamal Lewis to stay healthy for long (Predicted Record: 6-10)
21. Carolina Panthers: The Panthers seem to be a popular pick to win the NFC South, and I am not actually sure why. They do seem to have a decent runningback tandem in Stewart and Williams, but nothing out of this world. Their QB is still the painfully mediocre Delhomme, and their lead WR can't keep out of trouble because of his anger problems. Their defense has Peppers and really not much else. In the weak South they should still do decent anyway, but playoffs... I find that very hard to believe (Predicted Record: 7-9)
20. New York Giants: This has to be the first team to go from Superbowl champion to anticipated to not make the playoffs. Everyone seems to just assume that the Giants are done, and I hate to be part of that belief. Losing Osi was the final straw, because you know Eli will return to form (after his godly playoff run). Their running game is deep, but without a true star. But they won the Superbowl because of their D-line, and with Strahan and Osi gone, that power is gone too. The final straw, is that the NFC East is the best division in football, and that will make it even more difficult for the Giants to survive. (Predicted Record: 7-9)
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Similar to the Titans, I never had high expectations for the Bucs. I mean, they slipped into the playoffs without a single top 10 talent at any position. That is a great sign of coaching and team effort, and that should remain with the Bucs this season. However, I don't think they will actually reach the postseason this time around, but they shouldn't be an embarrassment either. (Predicted Record: 7-9)
18. Arizona Cardinals: For a change, I tried to not overrate the Cardinals, which I very commonly do. They are my favorite NFC team, but I will try and not let that cloud my judgment. The fact is, at key positions, they have old (but experienced) players, and that is a two edge sword. If Warner and James can play up to par, this could be a great team. They have the best WR duo in the NFL if Boldin can somehow remain happy, and you can't ignore that, along with a pretty decent defense. I just am not prepared to jump on the bandwagon too soon, because I have been known to do so. (Predicted Record: 8-8)
17. New York Jets: The Bret Favre experience. I do think adding him helps the Jets, because it makes teams more afraid of the passing game. However, I just don't know if they have the running game to take advantage of that, and if Mangini is a smart enough coach to use Favre wisely as a diversion. No matter what the Jets do this season, they will be compared to the Packers because of the Favre decision, and likely they won't compare too greatly. (Predicted Record: 8-8)
16. Cincinnati Bengals: For a few years, the Bengals were an extremely trendy pick. They have a potent offense, although one that has been made a lot weaker with the departure of Rudi Johnson. Their defense is in the Indianapolis mold of being fast and making turnovers, and as Indy showed the league it takes a few years for that to completely come together. However, the division is just too tough for that to happen right away, although you never know if they pull together a few early season divisional wins. (Predicted Record: 8-8)
15. Seattle Seahawks: This is a team that on paper never looks good. Many consider Hasslebeck a terrible QB, yet he puts up wins. The same goes for what always looks like a bad receiving core, and an unconventional defense. The fact is, however, that this team always seems to win the division, no matter how good the challenging teams are. Its not a long shot to say that Seattle will do it again, except I don't think they will. However, I wouldn't underestimate them either, because that is exactly what the Seahawks play off of. (Predicted Record: 8-8)
14. Greenbay Packers: Just barely outside of the playoffs, Greenbay is getting way too much press for not being that good. The main issue I have is the Ryan Grant love. The only reason he was that successful last season, is because teams were putting 7 men in coverage to stop Favre, and because the run game was weak at the beginning of the year. Now teams will be planning on shutting down Grant (Because Rogers doesn't scare anyone), and I expect he won't even reach a thousand yards total. Maybe I am wrong, but I just don't love this Rogers-Grant combo, and I think that is what will keep them out of the playoffs. (Predicted Record: 9-7)
13. Washington Redskins (*Wild Card): My first playoff team on the list, I feel that the Redskins are about as good as they were last season. A team that has a complete roster from top to bottom with little overall weakness. The biggest problem for the Redskins will be the division, which is strong from top to bottom so they are going to need to get wins in any way possible. However, I think they will pull through, although by the thinnest of margins (Predicted Record: 9-7)
12. Baltimore Ravens: Here is where my inconsistencies show. While I criticized Atlanta for using a rookie QB, I am much more forgiving towards the Flacco-led Ravens. It might be because after Brohm, Flacco is the QB I was most impressed with coming into the NFL (although Henne is looking good for Miami), and I don't think Flacco will need to do near as much as Ryan. In the end, I am probably extremely over estimating the Ravens, and they are actually a three win team, but whats a Don Wisniewski preview without some outrageous reaches (Predicted Record: 9-7)
11. New Orleans Saints (*Division champ): And here is my worst team that will end up winning a division. I think the Saints will rebound this season, because they do have talent in place as long as Deuce stays healthy. The key with the Saints is that Bush is only effective if hes not the main ball carrier. He never did that in USC, and he will never be that successful in the NFL (unlike Mario Williams). However, in a split back system he isn't too bad and with Drew Brees leading the helm, the Saints should not be that terrible. The NFC South is the snooze division, but the Saints will come out on top. (Predicted Record: 10-6)
10. St.Louis Rams (*Division champ): Ok, lets take a moment so you can catch your breath from laughing. Yes, I realize that they only own 4 games last season, and had the second overall pick in the draft. However, I also realize that they have a superb QB, a superb RB, and superb WR's. They also added Chris Long to a suspect defensive line, and their secondary is respectable. The entire fate of the St.Louis Rams lies on their one weakness, the o-line. I personally think they will become respectable this season, but if they don't then Bulger will not be the pro-bowl talent I expect him to be. (Predicted Record: 10-6)
9. Philadelphia Eagles (*Wild Card): I love how I have a little run of NFC teams here. It seems that the worst playoff teams are in the NFC, as I have already shown 4 NFC playoff teams, and zero AFC playoff teams. The NFC might be deeper than the AFC, but when it comes to the top they aren't even close to the AFC. Anyway, the Eagles have one of the top 5 players in the entire NFL, and its one who is quiet, respectful, and cares more about winning then himself. This pick is entirely behind Westbrook, as he is an absolute superstar. They may not end up being as good as Dallas, but I would not rule that out. (Predicted Record: 10-6)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (*Wild Card): The worst AFC playoff team. A lot of people think this is the year Jacksonville will jump Indy in the division. That is just absolute crazy talk. However, you can't doubt them as a playoff team. They are fairly deep at every position, so injury problems shouldn't dishevel them like most teams, and there is no huge weakness. When it comes to a dual-back system, as long Taylor stays healthy it is one of the best. However, while they are deep in every position, there is not a lot of dominant players on this team. There are few of Pro-bowl caliber, and that may come to haunt them when they need a big play. (Predicted Record: 10-6)
7. Denver Broncos (*Wild Card): Similar to my Rams prediction, this one seems completely unfounded. In some ways, its an attempt to forgive myself for having them as the single best NFL team last year in the preseason. The team is basically the same as last year, besides the RB position, so it really isn't a push for me to make them a playoff team. They have a superb QB in Jay Cutler, a sick cornerback crew led by Bailey and Bly, a decent o-line, and all that jazz. This should be a rebound year for them, but we will wait and see (Predicted Record: 10-6)
6. Dallas Cowboys (*First Round Bye): As we all know, I don't really like the Cowboys and I hate Tony Romo. But none of that matters when I make my power rankings. The fact is, Dallas is overall a pretty good regular season team. I expect they will win the division, but come playoff time don't be surprised if a team like St.Louis knocks them off as they just aren't a clutch team. (Predicted Record: 11-5)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (*Division) The Steelers look pretty good, and are floating under the radar also. A strong dual back system along with Big Ben and a typical Steelers defense. In many ways last year was to set up for this year, and this year I expect to see Pittsburgh dominate once again. People are forgetting about this team, but I expect them to be around come playoff time. (Predicted Record: 10-6)
4. Minnesota Vikings (*Homefield Advantage): I am just one of those bandwagon jumpers. I like the set up for the Vikings on every position but one. My theory, however, is that Rex Grossman led a great Bears team, so why can't Jackson led an otherwise stacked Vikings team. They have one of the best pass rushes (on paper) and one of the best offensive lines. And if you have great lines, you have a great team. It's the number one rule (Predicted Record: 11-5)
3. New England Patriots (*Division): Now I made the mistake of making up the list before the O'Neil signing, but I just can't trust a team with no cornerbacks and a mediocre d-line. Its a given that the Patriots will put up points, but I don't imagine it will even come close to rivaling last season. The loss of Stallworth will mean teams will actually cover Wes Walker, and we all know Maroney is about as useful as a brick in the Patriots offense. Maybe I am trying to convince myself that this team is bad just for personal gratification, but I just am withholding judgment for awhile (Predicted Record: 12-4)
2. San Diego Chargers (*First Round Bye): A week ago this was my number one team. However, you can't underrate the loss of Shawn Merriman (or in this case the imminent loss of him trying to play through it). An injured Merriman keeps this team from the elite area. Also with Rivers and Gates banged up, this team is injured before the regular season has even begun. That will be the biggest challenge for the Chargers this season, staying healthy (Predicted Record: 12-4)
1. Indianapolis Colts (*Homefield Advantage): I hate having my favorite team on the top (never actually have before) but on paper I think they are the most complete team. Sanders and Freeney should be back by the regular season, and I am not too worried about Sanders producing immediately (he is the reigning defensive player of the year). It looks like the week 1 Sorgi nightmare won't occur, and Harrison is going to go haywire, as no one seems to be afraid of him anymore. My only worry is that for the first third of the season we won't have Saturday on Sundays (hahaha, I am so funny), but that is when Indy is best anyway, and Saturday will squeeze right in when he is healthy. Maybe I am overly optimistic, but I love the way Indy looks this year for change... or at least until the play the Chargers in the playoffs (Predicted Record: 13-3)
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Friday, April 18, 2008
NBA Playoff Picks
Welcome to the time of year when everyone loves the NBA after only watching maybe a combined 40 minutes all year, and that is only through highlights. You will get expert analysis by a guy who is now more known for his sweet commercials with Wade then his past success as an NBA star, and thousand of people will turn to TNT angrily when they discover they can't watch their fifth episode of Law and Order of the day, because some NBA game is on (luckily for them USA won't let them down). The other interesting thing about all this is that it is the only sport that routinely has the championship game one or two rounds before the final games (although this year might actually break the mold). Some notes before I go into my picks:
1) Celtics fan will be everywhere, no matter where you live. They'll claim they have been fans all along, but they'll probably be sporting a Garnett jersey seeing they didn't care less about the Celts until they started winning.
2) Some casual fans will get extremely confused when they turn on the tv to Orlando v Toronto (ok, I understand that few casual fans will actually care about this series) and be extremely confused when the announcers are talking about superstar Hedo Turkoglu... Needless to say, actual NBA anaylists are also confused about this, and probably Hedo himself.
3) That the Atlanta Hawks still exist. I think alot of people just assumed that their mediocrity got to the point that the franchise was disbanded. However, true to Eastern form, an extremely bad team actually can be playoff bound with a horrible record. However, most people will still continue to think the Hawks don't exist, because within 4 quick games they'll be gone.
4) San Antonio v Phoenix will potentially be the most dissapointing series in the first round, just because of the huge expectation. Most people are probably hoping that someone runs into Nash, forcing Stoudamire AND Shaq to run out and start brawling Duncan and Parker as Ginobli cries in the corner. The sad part is that this sweet response will likely not happen, and it will just be close typical basketball games. Ah well, maybe Detroit and Philly can fulfill our fight desires.
5) That the Denver Nuggests are a 8th seed in the Western Conference with 50 wins, and our major underdogs. I mean, when was the last time a team that was 18 games over .500 was the bottom team in the playoffs. Needless to say, despite that great win count, they still can't compete with the Lakers and will get knocked out before Carmello can get another DUI (although I am sure Anthony will take that challenge).
6) The Dallas Mavericks story. Yes, the same team that was embarrassed by Golden State after their dominating season last year, this year they are on the opposite spectrum as alot of people thought they might not even make the playoffs. The difference about them this year is that last year Dirk was complacent, and this year Dirk is just plain pissed off. Needless to say, if there is one player to carry a team by himself in the West I'd take Kobe, but Dirk would be a close second.
7) That the reigning Eastern Conference champion is considered an underdog by many sources. Now this isn't surprising, because the Cav's basically have only one player sorrounded by players who probably wouldn't even make the Lakers roster. However, that one player is the sickening Lebron, and after watching that Detroit game last year when he went off at the end of Regulation and OT (which was the most impressive single player sports performance I saw in my life) I am not about to pick against this kid. Lebron is everything the NBA needs, a star ala Michael Jordan, and while he probably will never reach that plateau, he is definitely the best individual performer in the mediocre East where one player can take it all.
8) That I, personally, will pretend that I know what I am talking about when I am making these picks, despite the fact that my favorite teams are the Bucks and Grizzlies, and quite frankly my entire NBA based knowledge is about who gets a sweet amount of fantasy points (which is why, I may try to convince you that Peja is the secret star of the Hornets, when any sane man knows that it was David West, but he wasn't on my team)
Eastern Conference Picks
(1) Boston over (8) Atlanta 4-0
-Have to make it, although I really hope Atlanta can win just won so they can say that their postseason went against all expectations.
(2) Detroit over (7) Philadelphia 4-1
-Philadelphia was quietly a good team near the end of the season, and Iguadala is an up and coming superstar that gets undernoticed. Despite those nice points, Detroit is just too deep and has too much history to be an Eastern Conference fatality
(3) Orlando over (6) Toronto 4-2
-The fact that a canadian team can make the playoff back to back years is a surprise enough, but until their manager finally realizes that Calderon is significantly better than Ford, and that besides Bosh they have nothing else, Orlando should cruise.
(4) Cleveland over (5) Washington 4-3
-Washington is the trendy pick, because of their now deep and healthy roster with Gilbert and Butler returning. However, Gilbert will be anything but 100%, and if Detroit couldn't stop Lebron, how do you expect the Wizards do it for 4 games
(1) Boston over (4) Cleveland 4-2
-Lebron will steal two games by himself, but four against the team that dominated the East all season is just asking too much. There is only one legit team in the East and that is Boston, and Lebron is just not good enough yet to do it himself against this caliber.
(3) Orlando over (2) Detroit 4-2
-My first East conference upset is based upon that one of these teams is up and coming and the other is reaching the end of their franchises dominance. While Orlando has its share of weakness (Keith Bogans mainly) the trio of Turkoglu, Howard, and Lewis should be enough to stun the Pistons.
(1) Boston over (3) Orlando 4-1
-I hate to do this, but quite frankly Orlando is just not good enough yet to beat Boston. Maybe they will, and I would love to be proven wrong here, but don't expect it.
Western Conference Picks
(1) LA Lakers over (8) Denver 4-1
-Denver is a great team, but Carmello is a constant distraction and Iverson is no longer good enough to carry a team by himself. They'll steal a game but not alot more.
(7) Dallas over (2) New Orleans 4-2
-This is where the West gets interesting. Dallas is a team that has finally gotten healthy with Dirk and is fairly deep for a 7 seed. New Orleans is having a dream season with potential MVP runner-up Chris Paul and quite superstar David West. However, you can't underate post-season experience and Dirks anger over the embarrasment last year.
(6) Phoenix over (3) San Antonio 4-2
-Simply, Phoenix got Shaq to change the scales on the Spurs. Instead of the run and gun no defense Suns, this is a more funadamental team now. This series will get all the hype, but I think the Spurs run should finally run short.
(4) Utah over (5) Houston 4-1
-What is interesting is that Houston has homecourt despite being the lower seed. Houston is here because of their improbably run of 22 straight games, before finally plateauing to the talent they are. McGrady won't be shedding his postseason failure image this season. Thats for sure
(1) LA Lakers over (4) Utah 4-3
-I struggled over this pick for a bit, but I think this is where Gasol tips the scales. Gasol is as good, if not better than Boozer and that changes up Utah's advantage. Deron Williams is a great player, but not a superstar yet... Kobe is.
(7)Dallas over (6) Phoenix 4-2
-My continue support of Dallas is ironic, because I cheered adamantly for Golden State last postseason. However, Dallas is more prepared this year, and won't be caught watching instead of playing.
(7) Dallas over (1) LA Laker 4-2
-I could tell you some elaborate insight for this pick, but then I would have to think of one. Basically, I am picking this because having the two top seeds playing in the finals is just lame. Therefore need an upset here so I can't be accused of "chalking" it up
NBA Finals Picks
(7) Dallas over (1) Boston 4-3
-This is why I am not an actually sports analysist. This is a team that could have easily fallen out of the playoffs when Dirk went down. This is a team who two years ago had the Heat all but done before allowing Wade to take them over. The problem is, I don't think Boston has a Wade who can take over a game himself, but Dallas does. Until I figure out who stops Dirk at the end of the game, this is their time to redeme last years failure, and make me actually look like I know what I am talking about.... even if I am one of those people who only watched an hour all year...
1) Celtics fan will be everywhere, no matter where you live. They'll claim they have been fans all along, but they'll probably be sporting a Garnett jersey seeing they didn't care less about the Celts until they started winning.
2) Some casual fans will get extremely confused when they turn on the tv to Orlando v Toronto (ok, I understand that few casual fans will actually care about this series) and be extremely confused when the announcers are talking about superstar Hedo Turkoglu... Needless to say, actual NBA anaylists are also confused about this, and probably Hedo himself.
3) That the Atlanta Hawks still exist. I think alot of people just assumed that their mediocrity got to the point that the franchise was disbanded. However, true to Eastern form, an extremely bad team actually can be playoff bound with a horrible record. However, most people will still continue to think the Hawks don't exist, because within 4 quick games they'll be gone.
4) San Antonio v Phoenix will potentially be the most dissapointing series in the first round, just because of the huge expectation. Most people are probably hoping that someone runs into Nash, forcing Stoudamire AND Shaq to run out and start brawling Duncan and Parker as Ginobli cries in the corner. The sad part is that this sweet response will likely not happen, and it will just be close typical basketball games. Ah well, maybe Detroit and Philly can fulfill our fight desires.
5) That the Denver Nuggests are a 8th seed in the Western Conference with 50 wins, and our major underdogs. I mean, when was the last time a team that was 18 games over .500 was the bottom team in the playoffs. Needless to say, despite that great win count, they still can't compete with the Lakers and will get knocked out before Carmello can get another DUI (although I am sure Anthony will take that challenge).
6) The Dallas Mavericks story. Yes, the same team that was embarrassed by Golden State after their dominating season last year, this year they are on the opposite spectrum as alot of people thought they might not even make the playoffs. The difference about them this year is that last year Dirk was complacent, and this year Dirk is just plain pissed off. Needless to say, if there is one player to carry a team by himself in the West I'd take Kobe, but Dirk would be a close second.
7) That the reigning Eastern Conference champion is considered an underdog by many sources. Now this isn't surprising, because the Cav's basically have only one player sorrounded by players who probably wouldn't even make the Lakers roster. However, that one player is the sickening Lebron, and after watching that Detroit game last year when he went off at the end of Regulation and OT (which was the most impressive single player sports performance I saw in my life) I am not about to pick against this kid. Lebron is everything the NBA needs, a star ala Michael Jordan, and while he probably will never reach that plateau, he is definitely the best individual performer in the mediocre East where one player can take it all.
8) That I, personally, will pretend that I know what I am talking about when I am making these picks, despite the fact that my favorite teams are the Bucks and Grizzlies, and quite frankly my entire NBA based knowledge is about who gets a sweet amount of fantasy points (which is why, I may try to convince you that Peja is the secret star of the Hornets, when any sane man knows that it was David West, but he wasn't on my team)
Eastern Conference Picks
(1) Boston over (8) Atlanta 4-0
-Have to make it, although I really hope Atlanta can win just won so they can say that their postseason went against all expectations.
(2) Detroit over (7) Philadelphia 4-1
-Philadelphia was quietly a good team near the end of the season, and Iguadala is an up and coming superstar that gets undernoticed. Despite those nice points, Detroit is just too deep and has too much history to be an Eastern Conference fatality
(3) Orlando over (6) Toronto 4-2
-The fact that a canadian team can make the playoff back to back years is a surprise enough, but until their manager finally realizes that Calderon is significantly better than Ford, and that besides Bosh they have nothing else, Orlando should cruise.
(4) Cleveland over (5) Washington 4-3
-Washington is the trendy pick, because of their now deep and healthy roster with Gilbert and Butler returning. However, Gilbert will be anything but 100%, and if Detroit couldn't stop Lebron, how do you expect the Wizards do it for 4 games
(1) Boston over (4) Cleveland 4-2
-Lebron will steal two games by himself, but four against the team that dominated the East all season is just asking too much. There is only one legit team in the East and that is Boston, and Lebron is just not good enough yet to do it himself against this caliber.
(3) Orlando over (2) Detroit 4-2
-My first East conference upset is based upon that one of these teams is up and coming and the other is reaching the end of their franchises dominance. While Orlando has its share of weakness (Keith Bogans mainly) the trio of Turkoglu, Howard, and Lewis should be enough to stun the Pistons.
(1) Boston over (3) Orlando 4-1
-I hate to do this, but quite frankly Orlando is just not good enough yet to beat Boston. Maybe they will, and I would love to be proven wrong here, but don't expect it.
Western Conference Picks
(1) LA Lakers over (8) Denver 4-1
-Denver is a great team, but Carmello is a constant distraction and Iverson is no longer good enough to carry a team by himself. They'll steal a game but not alot more.
(7) Dallas over (2) New Orleans 4-2
-This is where the West gets interesting. Dallas is a team that has finally gotten healthy with Dirk and is fairly deep for a 7 seed. New Orleans is having a dream season with potential MVP runner-up Chris Paul and quite superstar David West. However, you can't underate post-season experience and Dirks anger over the embarrasment last year.
(6) Phoenix over (3) San Antonio 4-2
-Simply, Phoenix got Shaq to change the scales on the Spurs. Instead of the run and gun no defense Suns, this is a more funadamental team now. This series will get all the hype, but I think the Spurs run should finally run short.
(4) Utah over (5) Houston 4-1
-What is interesting is that Houston has homecourt despite being the lower seed. Houston is here because of their improbably run of 22 straight games, before finally plateauing to the talent they are. McGrady won't be shedding his postseason failure image this season. Thats for sure
(1) LA Lakers over (4) Utah 4-3
-I struggled over this pick for a bit, but I think this is where Gasol tips the scales. Gasol is as good, if not better than Boozer and that changes up Utah's advantage. Deron Williams is a great player, but not a superstar yet... Kobe is.
(7)Dallas over (6) Phoenix 4-2
-My continue support of Dallas is ironic, because I cheered adamantly for Golden State last postseason. However, Dallas is more prepared this year, and won't be caught watching instead of playing.
(7) Dallas over (1) LA Laker 4-2
-I could tell you some elaborate insight for this pick, but then I would have to think of one. Basically, I am picking this because having the two top seeds playing in the finals is just lame. Therefore need an upset here so I can't be accused of "chalking" it up
NBA Finals Picks
(7) Dallas over (1) Boston 4-3
-This is why I am not an actually sports analysist. This is a team that could have easily fallen out of the playoffs when Dirk went down. This is a team who two years ago had the Heat all but done before allowing Wade to take them over. The problem is, I don't think Boston has a Wade who can take over a game himself, but Dallas does. Until I figure out who stops Dirk at the end of the game, this is their time to redeme last years failure, and make me actually look like I know what I am talking about.... even if I am one of those people who only watched an hour all year...
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Conference Championship Games
I'll take the Patriots (because I vowed not to pick against them again until they lose) and the Giants (because you have to have faith in your team) in today's games.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Championship picks
To me the NFL season ended last week, so yeah. Nothing fancy in these picks. Only a prearranged competition is keeping me to pick this week anyway. Basically I picks the Pats and the Pack. Simple to remember, just taking the best records and going with it.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Divisional Playoff Picks - Sunday
As promised, here are my picks for tomorrow's playoff games.
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
This game is, at least to me, simple. Forget the talk about injuries to Antonio Gates and Dwight Freeney. Forget about the Chargers' momentum. Forget about how the Chargers supposedly match up well against the Colts. Forget that the Chargers have beaten the Colts once already and have since improved. All that matters is this: Indianapolis is the better team. To top things off, they'll be getting back arguably the second best receiver in NFL history. Even if Marvin Harrison only plays half of their offensive snaps, it will be a boost. Have I mentioned that Tony Dungy is a considerably better head coach than Norv Turner?
Pick: Indianapolis 34, San Diego 10
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
I don't want to say anything about this game.
Pick: New York 27, Dallas 24
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
This game is, at least to me, simple. Forget the talk about injuries to Antonio Gates and Dwight Freeney. Forget about the Chargers' momentum. Forget about how the Chargers supposedly match up well against the Colts. Forget that the Chargers have beaten the Colts once already and have since improved. All that matters is this: Indianapolis is the better team. To top things off, they'll be getting back arguably the second best receiver in NFL history. Even if Marvin Harrison only plays half of their offensive snaps, it will be a boost. Have I mentioned that Tony Dungy is a considerably better head coach than Norv Turner?
Pick: Indianapolis 34, San Diego 10
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
I don't want to say anything about this game.
Pick: New York 27, Dallas 24
Divisional Playoff Picks - Saturday
Here are my picks for Saturday's games.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
The first game of the weekend is giving me serious trouble. The Packers have the home field edge, not to mention the extra week for rest and preparation. However, their relative inexperience may cancel out those advantages. What this means is that even more will fall on the shoulders of Brett Favre.
While I like the Seahawks' defense, Matt Hasselbeck's performance was hardly confidence instilling. By my count, he's had three good playoff games to five bad ones over the course of his career. Even worse, Hasselbeck has never had a passer rating of 70 or better in a road playoff game. Not surprisingly, Seattle hasn't won a road playoff game since the 1980's. Hasselbeck aside, the ground game has struggled this year for Seattle. If the Seahawks win, it will more likely be due to their defense than their offense.
As much as I worry about the Packers' inexperience, Hasselbeck still has a few more bad interceptions in him that could prove the difference in this one. Not to say that Favre isn't interception prone, but he's playing his best football in arguably more than a decade. In other words, Favre hasn't been this good since he last went to the Super Bowl. If this game were in Seattle, it would be a different story, but in Green Bay, I can't be confident in the Seahawks.
Pick: Green Bay 24, Seattle 16
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
This may be the most tempting game of the year. The Patriots' run defense has declined as the season has worn on, and the Jaguars have the running game to exploit that weakness. As a result, the Patriots will try to score early to put the Jaguars in a hole to get them away from the running game. Jacksonville has not won this year when trailing by more than seven points. In short, the game boils down to this: If the Jaguars can keep the game close and control the clock, they'll have a good chance; if not, the Patriots should win.
Of course, throw in the fact that the Patriots will probably have at least a few questionable calls, catches, and/or eye pokes go their way and the Jaguars probably won't have enough to keep pace. The sad thing about that last sentence is that it's only a half-joke; would anyone really be surprised to see the Patriot's "Perfect" season extended another week thanks in part to a dubious penalty or a Jabbar Gaffney "touchdown"? I want to take the Jaguars here (no doubt I'll be rooting for them) but I vowed not to pick against the Patriots again until they lost. Ugh.
Pick: New England 27, Jacksonville 17
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
The first game of the weekend is giving me serious trouble. The Packers have the home field edge, not to mention the extra week for rest and preparation. However, their relative inexperience may cancel out those advantages. What this means is that even more will fall on the shoulders of Brett Favre.
While I like the Seahawks' defense, Matt Hasselbeck's performance was hardly confidence instilling. By my count, he's had three good playoff games to five bad ones over the course of his career. Even worse, Hasselbeck has never had a passer rating of 70 or better in a road playoff game. Not surprisingly, Seattle hasn't won a road playoff game since the 1980's. Hasselbeck aside, the ground game has struggled this year for Seattle. If the Seahawks win, it will more likely be due to their defense than their offense.
As much as I worry about the Packers' inexperience, Hasselbeck still has a few more bad interceptions in him that could prove the difference in this one. Not to say that Favre isn't interception prone, but he's playing his best football in arguably more than a decade. In other words, Favre hasn't been this good since he last went to the Super Bowl. If this game were in Seattle, it would be a different story, but in Green Bay, I can't be confident in the Seahawks.
Pick: Green Bay 24, Seattle 16
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
This may be the most tempting game of the year. The Patriots' run defense has declined as the season has worn on, and the Jaguars have the running game to exploit that weakness. As a result, the Patriots will try to score early to put the Jaguars in a hole to get them away from the running game. Jacksonville has not won this year when trailing by more than seven points. In short, the game boils down to this: If the Jaguars can keep the game close and control the clock, they'll have a good chance; if not, the Patriots should win.
Of course, throw in the fact that the Patriots will probably have at least a few questionable calls, catches, and/or eye pokes go their way and the Jaguars probably won't have enough to keep pace. The sad thing about that last sentence is that it's only a half-joke; would anyone really be surprised to see the Patriot's "Perfect" season extended another week thanks in part to a dubious penalty or a Jabbar Gaffney "touchdown"? I want to take the Jaguars here (no doubt I'll be rooting for them) but I vowed not to pick against the Patriots again until they lost. Ugh.
Pick: New England 27, Jacksonville 17
Friday, January 11, 2008
Round two of playoffs
Well, before I go into my picks, there are a few points I would like to make:
1) Well, this is a sports blog predominately, but lets take a detour into something else. The show Degrassi is absolutely amazing. I mean, there is just so much awesome drama. I mean, Spinner is a character who is looking to break into my top 50 characters update of the future, and Darcy is becoming a new female fan. Heck I am even cheering for a relationship for a change in it. I don't know why I am pointing this out here, but boy do I love Degrassi. Ok, now that the world knows about my new tv obsession, I can continue on.
2) Thiell's post last week accurately showed why I should not be allowed to rank teams. But there is an easy way for the Denver debacle to occur. First off, I hate to predict the Colts as the number one team because that makes me look bias, and I would never pick the Pats number one because that would make me admit the Pats are actually good (which is a moral sin in my eyes). I also didn't want to pick the Chargers because that was who everyone was picking. But in truth, I picked Denver because they looked like they had an amazing roster. What I need to do next season is avoid big names, but look at the quality of the defensive lines, because that is where Denver failed. Oh and the Texans at 32, well I just don't particularily like them or Schaub so that is completely sensible for me. Oh well, maybe next year I'll actually be partially succesful.
3) To be quite honest, the first round couldn't go better for regular football fans. I mean, the 8 best teams in the entire NFL are left (although Pitt vs the Giants/Seahawks may be a bit debatable). Most years there is at least one upset that messes this up here. Now, heres hoping that this theme DOES not continue, and we get some juicy upsets this week that don't involve the Colts. But hey, you can't complain when you have four high class games, with great football being played, and heck, at the most important position (QB) You have: 3 certain hall of famers, 1 current superstar, 2 superb game managers, one enigma, and one subpar QB. Besides the last one of Rivers (but in that case, Tomlinson should just count as their QB, so then we could have four hall of famers) that is one amazing class of QB's. Nevertheless, four of those teams will go down, and who knows... maybe we are on our way to a Giants Jaguars superbowl, although I doubt it.
Seattle at Greenbay: All season long I have spent all my time avoiding ever giving any credit to Greenbay. On paper they just kept winning, but in my mind this was still the Greenbay of last year, one of the worst teams in the league that somehow pulled out 8 games, except this year they pulled out 13. Then there is Seattle, a team I praised all year, and kept putting as near to a top 5 team in the Power Rankings, as much as possible. However, first chance I get I pick Washington to knock off this team I have supported so much. Alot of people are picking Greenbay in this game, but why start supporting this team now. I mean, come on, they have the QB with the most career interceptions, and two or more interceptions would make this an easy winner for Seattle.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks (24-20)
Jacksonville at New England: What a game. The question in my mind is whether or not I should just stand with my guns all along and pick the Jags. I mean, to begin with I believe New England is very overated in everyone's belief they are unbeatable. The Giants and Eagles could've beat the Pats but came up just short, and the Ravens should've beat the Pats if the refs had made the obvious calls. Now Jacksonville is better than all of those teams, and has the running game to keep Brady off the field, the best possible defense against the Pats. However, in times like this I have to remain cautious, and my gut is telling me, that this could be a disatrous pick, and that I should stick with the Pats for one more week, although I will definitely be cheering against them.
Winner: New England Patriots (28-27)
San Diego at Indianapolis: I just read an article about how the Chargers will beat the Colts. Because of that I am now more confident then ever, because it seems no one is really taking this Colts team seroiusly. When the Colts lost to the Chargers earlier this year they had only 17 active offensive players, and their second WR was Cresando Thorpe. Guess who their second WR is this week.... Reggie Wayne. I most say that is a tad bit of improvement. This game is over one play in, when Marvin steps out onto that field. The RCA Dome will be off the hooks, and people will be thinking it must be pumped in noise because it is giong so crazy. Manning may be the face of this team, but the heart is Marvin, and with Marvin back on there, I believe the Colts are unbeatable. Just for the record, the Colts are undefeated this year in games Marvin has played in (ok, so that only equals 5-0), and that won't change this week. This will be interesting for five minutes, until the first Colts TD, and then we will all be looking at the Colts-Pats round 2, or Colts-Jags round 3... two much more appealing game.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts (30-10)
New York Giants at Dallas: If there is one thing I believe in in the NFL, is that beating the same team three times in a season is extremely difficult. The Cowboys have already beaten the Giants twice, and most people favor the Cowboys in round three. However, in the first meeting Eli played great until an injury. Pair one good performance with a dominant past two games with the nation watching, and Eli may be growing up before our very eyes. However, the weirdest thing about this game is that for the first game in awhile, Eli is not the player with the most pressure in this game. Tony Romo has alot more to prove, with the biggest botch hold in years and his spending a week in Mexico instead of preparing for this game, also puts his work ethic in question. Basically Romo needs to win this game more, or it will be another long offseason for him. Eli, while still with pressure, should avoid being a laughingstock this offseason because he led a team with low expections to the divisional round, and hey, Eli deserves some of that credit, don't ya think... In the end though, I can only pick one upset this round, and this isn't it...
Winner: Dallas Cowboys (35-33)
1) Well, this is a sports blog predominately, but lets take a detour into something else. The show Degrassi is absolutely amazing. I mean, there is just so much awesome drama. I mean, Spinner is a character who is looking to break into my top 50 characters update of the future, and Darcy is becoming a new female fan. Heck I am even cheering for a relationship for a change in it. I don't know why I am pointing this out here, but boy do I love Degrassi. Ok, now that the world knows about my new tv obsession, I can continue on.
2) Thiell's post last week accurately showed why I should not be allowed to rank teams. But there is an easy way for the Denver debacle to occur. First off, I hate to predict the Colts as the number one team because that makes me look bias, and I would never pick the Pats number one because that would make me admit the Pats are actually good (which is a moral sin in my eyes). I also didn't want to pick the Chargers because that was who everyone was picking. But in truth, I picked Denver because they looked like they had an amazing roster. What I need to do next season is avoid big names, but look at the quality of the defensive lines, because that is where Denver failed. Oh and the Texans at 32, well I just don't particularily like them or Schaub so that is completely sensible for me. Oh well, maybe next year I'll actually be partially succesful.
3) To be quite honest, the first round couldn't go better for regular football fans. I mean, the 8 best teams in the entire NFL are left (although Pitt vs the Giants/Seahawks may be a bit debatable). Most years there is at least one upset that messes this up here. Now, heres hoping that this theme DOES not continue, and we get some juicy upsets this week that don't involve the Colts. But hey, you can't complain when you have four high class games, with great football being played, and heck, at the most important position (QB) You have: 3 certain hall of famers, 1 current superstar, 2 superb game managers, one enigma, and one subpar QB. Besides the last one of Rivers (but in that case, Tomlinson should just count as their QB, so then we could have four hall of famers) that is one amazing class of QB's. Nevertheless, four of those teams will go down, and who knows... maybe we are on our way to a Giants Jaguars superbowl, although I doubt it.
Seattle at Greenbay: All season long I have spent all my time avoiding ever giving any credit to Greenbay. On paper they just kept winning, but in my mind this was still the Greenbay of last year, one of the worst teams in the league that somehow pulled out 8 games, except this year they pulled out 13. Then there is Seattle, a team I praised all year, and kept putting as near to a top 5 team in the Power Rankings, as much as possible. However, first chance I get I pick Washington to knock off this team I have supported so much. Alot of people are picking Greenbay in this game, but why start supporting this team now. I mean, come on, they have the QB with the most career interceptions, and two or more interceptions would make this an easy winner for Seattle.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks (24-20)
Jacksonville at New England: What a game. The question in my mind is whether or not I should just stand with my guns all along and pick the Jags. I mean, to begin with I believe New England is very overated in everyone's belief they are unbeatable. The Giants and Eagles could've beat the Pats but came up just short, and the Ravens should've beat the Pats if the refs had made the obvious calls. Now Jacksonville is better than all of those teams, and has the running game to keep Brady off the field, the best possible defense against the Pats. However, in times like this I have to remain cautious, and my gut is telling me, that this could be a disatrous pick, and that I should stick with the Pats for one more week, although I will definitely be cheering against them.
Winner: New England Patriots (28-27)
San Diego at Indianapolis: I just read an article about how the Chargers will beat the Colts. Because of that I am now more confident then ever, because it seems no one is really taking this Colts team seroiusly. When the Colts lost to the Chargers earlier this year they had only 17 active offensive players, and their second WR was Cresando Thorpe. Guess who their second WR is this week.... Reggie Wayne. I most say that is a tad bit of improvement. This game is over one play in, when Marvin steps out onto that field. The RCA Dome will be off the hooks, and people will be thinking it must be pumped in noise because it is giong so crazy. Manning may be the face of this team, but the heart is Marvin, and with Marvin back on there, I believe the Colts are unbeatable. Just for the record, the Colts are undefeated this year in games Marvin has played in (ok, so that only equals 5-0), and that won't change this week. This will be interesting for five minutes, until the first Colts TD, and then we will all be looking at the Colts-Pats round 2, or Colts-Jags round 3... two much more appealing game.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts (30-10)
New York Giants at Dallas: If there is one thing I believe in in the NFL, is that beating the same team three times in a season is extremely difficult. The Cowboys have already beaten the Giants twice, and most people favor the Cowboys in round three. However, in the first meeting Eli played great until an injury. Pair one good performance with a dominant past two games with the nation watching, and Eli may be growing up before our very eyes. However, the weirdest thing about this game is that for the first game in awhile, Eli is not the player with the most pressure in this game. Tony Romo has alot more to prove, with the biggest botch hold in years and his spending a week in Mexico instead of preparing for this game, also puts his work ethic in question. Basically Romo needs to win this game more, or it will be another long offseason for him. Eli, while still with pressure, should avoid being a laughingstock this offseason because he led a team with low expections to the divisional round, and hey, Eli deserves some of that credit, don't ya think... In the end though, I can only pick one upset this round, and this isn't it...
Winner: Dallas Cowboys (35-33)
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Wild Card Weekend (or How a Season's Worth of Terrible Predictions is Mercifully Coming to a Close)
After 17 weeks (and a record that I am afraid to tabulate, although I am sure that Don is beating me), I have come to the following conclusion: I have absolutely no business making any sort of football predictions. This isn't a feeble stab at some self deprecating humor; a look back at my Preseason Power Rankings reveals just how miserable a year it has been for me:
Yes, I understand, hindsight is 20-20, if I knew then what I know now, etc. There are any number of clichés that can describe this phenomenon. My point in all of that is this: I am about to make my predictions for the first round of the playoffs. There is a huge grain of salt to take these with; that grain of salt is, of course, the sparkling record that I have laid out above.
One last thing before I get to my picks: I'm sure that if any non-Patriot stuck his finger into the facemask of Tom Brady, the penalty would be much more severe than a measly $15,000 fine. Not that I'm bitter or anything.
Finally, my picks, with, for kicks, my preseason ranking in parentheses:
(20) Washington Redskins at (10) Seattle Seahawks
The theme for this week is, as you shall see, indecision. Depending on how you look at them, Seattle has been either underwhelming or flying dangerously under the radar. I can't decide which it is. Washington, of course, enters the postseason on a tear, winners of four straight, despite starting 36 year old journeyman Todd Collins at quarterback. Seattle is an incredibly difficult place to play, and I believe more in the Seahawks' home field advantage than in the Redskins momentum. Pick: Seattle 20, Washington 17
(14) Jacksonville Jaguars at (16) Pittsburgh Steelers
I was all set to pick the Jaguars here and move on, but then I noticed that absolutely everyone is taking the Jags in this one. Sure, the Steelers are reeling, in part due to injury, but beating the same team twice on the road (as the Jaguars are trying to do) is not an easy feat. I love the Jaguars' running game, but what happens if they fall behind early? Even so, the Steelers just don't seem like the same team as earlier in the season. Conventional wisdom seems to indicate that without Willie Parker, the Steelers' offense will become one dimensional and unable to control the clock. My gut tells me Jacksonville and as much as I'd like to buck the trend and prove that I'm smarter than everyone else by picking Pittsburgh, I know that I'm not smarter than everyone, so I'll stay with my gut. Pick: Jacksonville 24, Pittsburgh 14
(23) New York Giants at (31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jeff Garcia has been a Giant killer, knocking them out in two of their last three trips to the playoffs (once with Philadelphia and once with San Francisco). The Buccaneers should be rested, while the Giants lost starters in the "meaningless" Patriots game. Plus, there's no way "Unstoppable" Eli Manning will play two good games in a row, especially given that the second game will be on the road in the playoffs. Screw it. Sure, the teams they beat weren't the toughest, but New York is 7-1 on the road this season. After back to back early playoff exits, shouldn't Eli have the experience to finally turn the corner? This game boils down to one simple question: Did last week's hard fought contest give the Giants the swagger to finally turn the team into one that will consistently play up to their ability or was it just another high point to make the inevitable first round playoff exit all the more frustrating? For once, I'm going to be an optimist. Pick: New York 14, Tampa Bay 13
(19) Tennessee Titans at (1) San Diego Chargers
Like the Steelers, the Chargers are a different team than we saw early in the season. Unlike with the Steelers, that's an endorsement - and not a criticism - of the Chargers. Am I nervous about the prospect of watching Norv Turner coach the Chargers in the playoffs? Absolutely. The Chargers are winners of six straight and seem to have turned the corner, whereas the Titans have baffled me all year long, winning games when I thought they shouldn't. Sure, Philip Rivers seems a bit shaky to be at the helm of a playoff team, but considering that his Tennessee counterpart is Vince Young, I feel a little bit better. Pick: San Diego 31, Tennessee 17
- The teams I had ranked 4 - 9 all failed to make the playoffs. So although my 1, 2, 3 combo of San Diego, New England, and Indianapolis isn't that bad, my 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 combo of Denver, Chicago, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Baltimore looks atrocious. Cincinnati AND Baltimore in the top 10? Six of my top nine, and nine of my top thirteen failed to make the playoffs.
- In theory, the playoffs represent the 12 best teams that the league has to offer. Even if that isn't always accomplished, we can at least agree that the playoffs feature 12 of the best, if not the absolute 12 best teams in the league. Well, here's where I had these elite 12 teams ranked preseason: 31, 23, 21, 20, 19, 18, 16, 14, 10, 3, 2, 1. Considering that you'd have to be completely and utterly hopeless to have passed on the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers preseason, my predictions look even more dismal. My average preseason rank for the 2008 playoff teams: 14.83. Lucky for me (or perhaps incredibly unlucky for him) Don had these same teams ranked an average of 15.416.
- Perhaps the most telling sign of the kind of year that it has been is this: the teams Don and I ranked as the absolute worst in the league finished 18-14. The teams we ranked as the best? Also 18-14. In other words, the collective Don and Mark wisdom couldn't even correctly discern between the best and worst teams in the league this season. If the challenge was to pick two teams and choose one that would absolutely be better than the other, collectively we would have failed. Individually, I would have barely passed this test with the Browns (10-6, nearly playoff worthy) as my preseason 32 and the Chargers (11-5) as my number one. Don actually would have failed, with his preseason 32, the Texans (8-8) outperforming his preseason number one, the Broncos (7-9).
Yes, I understand, hindsight is 20-20, if I knew then what I know now, etc. There are any number of clichés that can describe this phenomenon. My point in all of that is this: I am about to make my predictions for the first round of the playoffs. There is a huge grain of salt to take these with; that grain of salt is, of course, the sparkling record that I have laid out above.
One last thing before I get to my picks: I'm sure that if any non-Patriot stuck his finger into the facemask of Tom Brady, the penalty would be much more severe than a measly $15,000 fine. Not that I'm bitter or anything.
Finally, my picks, with, for kicks, my preseason ranking in parentheses:
(20) Washington Redskins at (10) Seattle Seahawks
The theme for this week is, as you shall see, indecision. Depending on how you look at them, Seattle has been either underwhelming or flying dangerously under the radar. I can't decide which it is. Washington, of course, enters the postseason on a tear, winners of four straight, despite starting 36 year old journeyman Todd Collins at quarterback. Seattle is an incredibly difficult place to play, and I believe more in the Seahawks' home field advantage than in the Redskins momentum. Pick: Seattle 20, Washington 17
(14) Jacksonville Jaguars at (16) Pittsburgh Steelers
I was all set to pick the Jaguars here and move on, but then I noticed that absolutely everyone is taking the Jags in this one. Sure, the Steelers are reeling, in part due to injury, but beating the same team twice on the road (as the Jaguars are trying to do) is not an easy feat. I love the Jaguars' running game, but what happens if they fall behind early? Even so, the Steelers just don't seem like the same team as earlier in the season. Conventional wisdom seems to indicate that without Willie Parker, the Steelers' offense will become one dimensional and unable to control the clock. My gut tells me Jacksonville and as much as I'd like to buck the trend and prove that I'm smarter than everyone else by picking Pittsburgh, I know that I'm not smarter than everyone, so I'll stay with my gut. Pick: Jacksonville 24, Pittsburgh 14
(23) New York Giants at (31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jeff Garcia has been a Giant killer, knocking them out in two of their last three trips to the playoffs (once with Philadelphia and once with San Francisco). The Buccaneers should be rested, while the Giants lost starters in the "meaningless" Patriots game. Plus, there's no way "Unstoppable" Eli Manning will play two good games in a row, especially given that the second game will be on the road in the playoffs. Screw it. Sure, the teams they beat weren't the toughest, but New York is 7-1 on the road this season. After back to back early playoff exits, shouldn't Eli have the experience to finally turn the corner? This game boils down to one simple question: Did last week's hard fought contest give the Giants the swagger to finally turn the team into one that will consistently play up to their ability or was it just another high point to make the inevitable first round playoff exit all the more frustrating? For once, I'm going to be an optimist. Pick: New York 14, Tampa Bay 13
(19) Tennessee Titans at (1) San Diego Chargers
Like the Steelers, the Chargers are a different team than we saw early in the season. Unlike with the Steelers, that's an endorsement - and not a criticism - of the Chargers. Am I nervous about the prospect of watching Norv Turner coach the Chargers in the playoffs? Absolutely. The Chargers are winners of six straight and seem to have turned the corner, whereas the Titans have baffled me all year long, winning games when I thought they shouldn't. Sure, Philip Rivers seems a bit shaky to be at the helm of a playoff team, but considering that his Tennessee counterpart is Vince Young, I feel a little bit better. Pick: San Diego 31, Tennessee 17
Friday, January 4, 2008
My Triumphant Return
Do to Yahoo keeping track for me, I retired from my typical witty commentary, and went the Bill Simmons route of doing as little as reasonably possible. But all that ends this week, when I return with sports post that would make any sane person's head spin. And yes, like always I will destroy my potential lead over Theill, with completely unrealistic picks. But before I go forward with my picks, I had an interesting discussion with one of my HP friends. He believes that the only team in the entire NFL that can beat the Patriots is Jacksonville. To begin with, I am hugely behind this idea because I have been calling it all along. However, to narrow it down to just one team I believe is unrealistic. The Pats went all out against the Giants and barely won. Now, I am not insulting the Giants, but the Chargers and the Colts at least are much better than the Giants, and if they travel into New England who says either of those teams couldn't finish the bid. I mean, you no longer can say Manning can choke the big game away, seeing only one season ago it was Brady who choked up an 18 point lead, and threw the final mistake to a waiting Marlin Jackson. Also, if you get a nice brisk snow in Foxboro, LT would have a field day, while Maroney would realize, that running in only two weeks of the season doesn't matter. But my point is that if the AFC first round goes as planned, could there even be anything close to the amazing-ness of the final four teams in the Conference... I mean you get Jax-NE and SD-Colts, and an AFC championship that is guarenteed to be amazing (besides maybe Jax-SD, but that won't happen). You could have potentially have the greatest three final games in conference history. However, the greatness that could be the AFC next weekend, is non-existant this weekend. Besides the potential of the Pittsburgh field making a great game, its going to be two domination games with little to watch. For this weekend at least all interest lies in the NFC teams, and mainly whether or not the two NFC East teams can keep up. There is alot to see in those games at least, so as a sports fan I would reccomend making time for the emotional Redskins and the enigmatic Giants. Now on to the picks
Washington at Seattle: I might be leading with my 152 wins, but that won't last after this week. I am known to highly support a team all season, and make statements like "they are Superbowl material" and that at the last minute change to some team I don't believe in (ALA Saints Bears last year, where for no real reason I changed to Bears). Seemingly, I have supported the Seahawks for awhile, as the sleeper NFC team. Then everyone started picking Seattle, and I discovered Collins was 10 years older than I previously thought. An old QB coming in for an injured future superstar, you have no choice but to go with that (ok, Campbell probably isn't a future superstar, but let me dream). But the real reason to go against Seattle, is Sean Taylor. I don't care if it costs me a game, but what happened was a tragedy, and for this Washington team any distraction is good, and each win is impressive. So in the end, I have no choice.
Winner: Washington Redskins (24-20)
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: The AFC South was a monster. Heck, the worst team was an 8-8 Texans team. Now, the AFC North wasn't easy (with Cleveland only missing out because of tiebreakers) but Pitt for awhile looked like an even bigger force. Then injuries came to play, and Jax beat them once on their own field, and by the way, some people even had Cleveland over them in their Power Rankings (one of those people being me). The field could make this game interesting, but in the end, Jacksonville is a great team, and Pitt is well... not.
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars (33-17)
New York Giants at Tampa Bay: This is a very difficult game to get a feel for. Its hard to tell how good these Giants are, because they play each game extremely different then the next. Everyone knows what Tampa is, they play each game the same and consistantly. The winner of this game will depend on what Eli shows up. If its the Eli who challenged Dallas and New England til the end, the Giants look like a winner. If it's the Eli who got demolished by Minnsota, well, this won't even be a game. But that is the thing of the Giants, they will live and die from their expensive first overall draft pick, and I (the eternal optimist) will always think that this is the game that will show the world.. hey, Eli is actually a good QB.
Winner: New York Giants (21-20)
Tennessee at San Diego: Kerry Collins is the x-factor. I mean, Young is a gametime decision, but Collins gives this team a much better chance to win. Despite that, if Young can play, you have to play him for the postseason experience, because this is not a year they can win the title no matter who is at the helm. The Chargers have been completely under the radar this year. After starting out embarrisingly bad, they have slowly gotten up to speed while the rest of the league is looking at the Colts and Pats. One of only two teams to beat Indy this year, you got to look at this team as a threat. But the real reason to pick San Diego... They have Tomlinson... And he alone is better than the entire Titans team.
Winner: San Diego Chargers (34-14)
Washington at Seattle: I might be leading with my 152 wins, but that won't last after this week. I am known to highly support a team all season, and make statements like "they are Superbowl material" and that at the last minute change to some team I don't believe in (ALA Saints Bears last year, where for no real reason I changed to Bears). Seemingly, I have supported the Seahawks for awhile, as the sleeper NFC team. Then everyone started picking Seattle, and I discovered Collins was 10 years older than I previously thought. An old QB coming in for an injured future superstar, you have no choice but to go with that (ok, Campbell probably isn't a future superstar, but let me dream). But the real reason to go against Seattle, is Sean Taylor. I don't care if it costs me a game, but what happened was a tragedy, and for this Washington team any distraction is good, and each win is impressive. So in the end, I have no choice.
Winner: Washington Redskins (24-20)
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: The AFC South was a monster. Heck, the worst team was an 8-8 Texans team. Now, the AFC North wasn't easy (with Cleveland only missing out because of tiebreakers) but Pitt for awhile looked like an even bigger force. Then injuries came to play, and Jax beat them once on their own field, and by the way, some people even had Cleveland over them in their Power Rankings (one of those people being me). The field could make this game interesting, but in the end, Jacksonville is a great team, and Pitt is well... not.
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars (33-17)
New York Giants at Tampa Bay: This is a very difficult game to get a feel for. Its hard to tell how good these Giants are, because they play each game extremely different then the next. Everyone knows what Tampa is, they play each game the same and consistantly. The winner of this game will depend on what Eli shows up. If its the Eli who challenged Dallas and New England til the end, the Giants look like a winner. If it's the Eli who got demolished by Minnsota, well, this won't even be a game. But that is the thing of the Giants, they will live and die from their expensive first overall draft pick, and I (the eternal optimist) will always think that this is the game that will show the world.. hey, Eli is actually a good QB.
Winner: New York Giants (21-20)
Tennessee at San Diego: Kerry Collins is the x-factor. I mean, Young is a gametime decision, but Collins gives this team a much better chance to win. Despite that, if Young can play, you have to play him for the postseason experience, because this is not a year they can win the title no matter who is at the helm. The Chargers have been completely under the radar this year. After starting out embarrisingly bad, they have slowly gotten up to speed while the rest of the league is looking at the Colts and Pats. One of only two teams to beat Indy this year, you got to look at this team as a threat. But the real reason to pick San Diego... They have Tomlinson... And he alone is better than the entire Titans team.
Winner: San Diego Chargers (34-14)
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