Week 17 Picks

It seems that the NFL instituted a new rule yesterday that allows players to intentionally poke another player's eye without drawing a penalty, even long after the whistle. What is unclear is whether or not this applies to the entire league or just those teams presumed to be on the "path to perfection." On to the picks, as always, winners in BOLD CAPS:


Buffalo at PHILADELPHIA

CINCINNATI at Miami

CAROLINA at Tampa Bay

New Orleans at CHICAGO

JACKSONVILLE at Houston

Seattle at ATLANTA

Detroit at GREEN BAY

San Francisco at CLEVELAND

MINNESOTA at Denver

Dallas at WASHINGTON

Pittsburgh at BALTIMORE

SAN DIEGO at Oakland

St. Louis at ARIZONA

Kansas City at NEW YORK JETS

Tennessee at INDIANAPOLIS

Thanks, NFL

Thank you, NFL, for letting me watch the Giants become a footnote in history tonight. My heart is in this for the Giants, of course, but I'd be an idiot to pick against the Patriots. Maybe the G-Men can at least tally a few sacks tonight.

Pick: New England


GO GIANTS!!

Week 16

Winners in BOLD CAPS:


Oakland at JACKSONVILLE

PHILADELPHIA at New Orleans

Kansas City at DETROIT

CLEVELAND at Cincinnati

GREEN BAY at Chicago

New York Giants at BUFFALO

Houston at INDIANAPOLIS

Atlanta at ARIZONA

TAMPA BAY at San Francisco

Baltimore at SEATTLE

Miami at NEW ENGLAND

NEW YORK JETS at Tennessee

Washington at MINNESOTA

Denver at SAN DIEGO

Saturday Football

Dallas over Carolina

Thursday Football

Steelers over Rams, that's all.

Week 15 Picks

Denver, Cincinatti, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Seattle, Greenbay, Baltimore, New England, Arizona, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Indy, Detroit, Dallas, Giants, Minnesota.

Remainder of Week 15 Picks

In yesterday's game, I had the Bengals (who lost). For today's games:

Winners in BOLD CAPS:


Jacksonville at PITTSBURGH

Atlanta at TAMPA BAY

SEATTLE at Carolina

GREEN BAY at St. Louis

BALTIMORE at Miami

New York Jets at NEW ENGLAND

ARIZONA at New Orleans

Buffalo at CLEVELAND

TENNESSEE at Kansas City

INDIANAPOLIS at Oakland

DETROIT at San Diego

Philadelphia at DALLAS

Washington at NEW YORK GIANTS

Chicago at MINNESOTA

Houston v. Denver

I'll take the TEXANS.

Week 14 picks?

Chicago, Buffalo, St.Louis, Jacksonville, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Greenbay, San Diego, New York Giants, Minnesota, Arizona, Kansas City, New England, Cleveland, Indianapolis, New Orleans

Week 14 Picks

Winners in BOLD CAPS:


Carolina at JACKSONVILLE

New York Giants at PHILADELPHIA

St. Louis at CINCINNATI

TAMPA BAY at Houston

Miami at BUFFALO

Oakland at GREEN BAY

DALLAS at Detroit

SAN DIEGO at Tennessee

MINNESOTA at San Francisco

Arizona at SEATTLE

CLEVELAND at New York Jets

Pittsburgh at NEW ENGLAND

KANSAS CITY at Denver

INDIANAPOLIS at Baltimore

NEW ORLEANS at Atlanta

More Thursday Football

I'm going with Chicago over Washington.

Week 12 picks

Dallas, Jets, Vikings, Eagles, Texans, Colts, Redskins, Chargers, 49ers, Rams, Browns, Broncos, Buccaneers, Bears, Bengals, Patriots

Week 13 Picks

Already 0-1 this week, excellent! Winners in BOLD CAPS:


SAN DIEGO at Kansas City

HOUSTON at Tennessee

Jacksonville at INDIANAPOLIS

Buffalo at WASHINGTON

San Francisco at CAROLINA

DETROIT at Minnesota

New York Jets at MIAMI

Atlanta at ST. LOUIS

SEATTLE at Philadelphia

Cleveland at ARIZONA

DENVER at Oakland

New York Giants at CHICAGO

Tampa Bay at NEW ORLEANS

Cincinnati at PITTSBURGH

NEW ENGLAND at Baltimore

I Hate the NFL Network

Packers over the Cowboys.

Remaining Week 12 PIcks

How about some more football to cap off a great Thanksgiving weekend? Sounds good to me. Winners in BOLD CAPS:


Seattle at ST. LOUIS: I don't feel particularly good about this game either way, but the Rams have a slight bit of momentum and the home field.

Minnesota at NEW YORK GIANTS: "The Giants are smart enough on defense. They won't be vulnerable to the trick plays and should handle the Vikings conventionally." Really, John Clayton? The Giants defense has never instilled much confidence in me, and certainly not enough to make me believe that they can "conventionally" handle anyone. Still, the offense should be able to score enough to pull this one out.

Buffalo at JACKSONVILLE: Interesting fact of the day: In each of the past four seasons, the Patriots have followed their bye week by playing the Bills. Hmm. In other news, the Bills aren't as good as the Jags and should lose this one.

NEW ORLEANS at Carolina: Ugh, another one of those "I don't feel good either way" games in a week filled with them. Interesting fact of the day number two: The Panthers haven't won a home game all season.

WASHINGTON at Tampa Bay: I read this morning that the Redskins are perhaps the best .500 team in the league, and I can't say that I take much issue with that statement.

HOUSTON at Cleveland: In case you couldn't tell, I wait all year long for these "a Houston upset doesn't seem so improbable here" games so I can add to Don's cushion.

TENNESSEE at Cincinnati: I'm not quite sure how or why the Titans are winning games, but they are.

Oakland at KANSAS CITY: Actual quote from Brad Childress: "You don't get to play them all against the Raiders."

San Francisco at ARIZONA: You know that your season's been a disappointment when you're 10 and 1/2 point underdogs to the Cardinals.

Baltimore at SAN DIEGO: The Ravens have four wins, but only one against an AFC opponent.

Denver at CHICAGO: C'mon, Sexy Rexy has to have one more of those "See, he really can be a solid starting quarterback!" games in him before he goes in the tank again.

Philadelphia at NEW ENGLAND: I love not having to think about a pick.

Miami at PITTSBURGH: Ditto.

Thanksgiving Picks

Happy Thanksgiving! Winners in BOLD CAPS:


GREEN BAY at Detroit: Unlike in recent years, the Lions have kept themselves in the playoff race for our Thanksgiving viewing pleasure. That said, the Packers continue to impress and should deal another blow to the Lions. Also, there's this logic: Packers beat the Giants. Giants beat the Lions. Packers should beat the Lions.

New York Jets at DALLAS: Can the Jets pull of a major upset in back-to-back weeks? I say no.

INDIANAPOLIS at Atlanta: Marvin Harrison will still be out and the Colts are in a bit of a mini-slide. Lucky for them they have this Thanksgiving Day treat and then the extra time to prepare for Jacksonville next week.

Week 11 picks

Quick as possible here. Winners are shown:
San Diego
Cleveland
Detroit
New Orleans
Greenbay
Indianapolis
Oakland
Philadelphia
Tampa Bay
Arizona
Pittsburgh
Dallas
San Francisco
Seattle
New England
Denver

Week 11 Picks

As always, winners in BOLD CAPS:


CLEVELAND at Baltimore: With San Diego and New England in the next two weeks, the Ravens' season could essentially be over.

San Diego at JACKSONVILLE: The Chargers didn't really deserve to win last week, so we'll call this one the Week 11 Karma Game.

Miami at PHILADELPHIA: I can't believe I actually had the Dolphins winning last week.

Oakland at MINNESOTA: Taking the home team.

Kansas City at INDIANAPOLIS: Injured or not, the Colts are still the best team not named the Patriots.

Carolina at GREEN BAY: Vinny Testaverde + Brett Favre = oldest starting QB matchup in NFL History.

New York Giants at DETROIT: Welcome to the annual "We got people to believe in us so now we're gonna lose a few to make it interesting" part of the Giants season.

Tampa Bay at ATLANTA: I'm picking against the Bucs because I didn't realize that they had a winning record, let alone a division lead.

NEW ORLEANS at Houston: Could the Saints overcome both an 0-4 start AND losing to a previously winless Rams team to make the playoffs?

Arizona at CINCINNATI: Two teams I can't figure out going head to head. Ugh.

PITTSBURGH at New York Jets: A no-brainer.

CHICAGO at Seattle: SEXY REXY!!

St. Louis at SAN FRANCISCO: How could I pick against Trent Dilfer?

Washington at DALLAS: I hate the Cowboys.

NEW ENGLAND at Buffalo: Not only do the Bills fans get to suffer this week, but it'll be on Prime Time for the whole country to see.

Tennessee at DENVER: No real reason for this one.

Week 10 Commentary

Check back throughout the day for some thoughts on this week's games as they happen.


1:58 PM Miami wins the challenge, overturning what would have been J.P. Losman's first completion of the game. For those keeping score at home, we're nearly 23 minutes into this one and Losman is 0/5.

1:56 PM Apparently, you can't challenge where the ball goes out on a punt. Interesting. Lucky for Miami they get a chance to win a challenge three plays later because a wide open Josh Reed can't keep his feet in bounds.

1:36 PM Cleveland is going to head into the second quarter with a 7-3 lead and a second and goal on Pittsburgh's 1. At least for this brief moment, the AFC North just got a whole lot more interesting.

1:08 PM Games to keep an eye on today: Cleveland at Pittsburgh, Dallas at New York Giants, Jacksonville at Tennessee. Three games involving six playoff contenders. Cleveland and New York each move into a tie for first with a win. If you subscribe to the theory that the AFC South only gets one wild card team this year, the Jaguars-Titans game could be a de facto clincher if Tennessee wins.

Week 10 Picks

No time for comments, so I'll just say this. The Giants have had two full weeks to prepare for what may be their most important game of the year. Don't let me down, boys; I'm picking with my heart this week.

As always, winners in BOLD CAPS.


Cleveland at PITTSBURGH

Philadelphia at WASHINGTON

Atlanta at CAROLINA

St. Louis at NEW ORLEANS

Buffalo at MIAMI

Denver at KANSAS CITY

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE

MINNESOTA at Green Bay

CINCINNATI at Baltimore

Dallas at NEW YORK GIANTS

DETROIT at Arizona

CHICAGO at Oakland

INDIANAPOLIS at San Diego

San Francisco at SEATTLE

Week 10 Picks

I only picked one underdog this week, and that team shouldn't even be an underdog. Ah well, here are my winners:

Pittsburgh
Greenbay
Washington
Tennessee
Carolina
Kansas City
Buffalo
New Orleans
Baltimore
Chicago
Dallas
Detroit
Indianapolis
Seattle

Week 9 Picks

Game of the Century. I mean, by rule I need to pick every single game this week, but does anyone care about the other 13 games. Heck, even the other two teams going for something amazing aren't plyaing this week (that being Rams and Dolphins) anyway, Colts Pats. Lets just say its a tad bit big.

Arizona over Tampa Bay: When it comes to Arizona I am blind, even if they are on the road
Detroit over Denver: Time to start believing even more in Detroit
Tennessee over Carolina: Not that hard of a pick... Would you really trust David Carr???
Greenbay over Kansas City: Only my second of three road winners this week, time to start believing that Greenbay may not be that bad.
San Diego over Minnesota: And the third. Easy choice here.
New Orleans over Jacksonville: I like Quinten Gray, but New Orleans is finally on fire
Atlanta over San Fran: Two horrible teams means you pick the one at home
New York Jets over Washington: I am a believer that Thomas Jones will finally shine
Buffalo over Cincy: Two horrible teams means you pick the one at home
Cleveland over Seattle: Why not, Derek Anderson has lead this team to alot of wins, why stop them now.
Oakland over Houston: This is my survivor pick, so hopefully I don't get killed for it.
Indianapolis over New England: Why? Because I will always pick with my heart, and my heart is behind my boys. Especially if Marvin comes out and play despite injury. Now that is having some balls.
Philadelphia over Dallas: It is time for both of these teams to show their true forms.
Pittsburgh over Baltimore: THis game is going to be alot closer than people think, but even so, Pitt will edge them out.

11 home teams, 3 road teams. I like the way I am pikcing this week

Week 9 Picks

This is going to be a rough week, I can just feel it already. As always, winners in BOLD CAPS.

Denver at DETROIT: The Broncos can't stop the run, or so I'm told, so even if Dre' Bly and Champ Bailey can shut down Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, the Lions should still be alright.

SAN FRANCISCO at Atlanta: The 49ers have underachieved so far this year, and will get an opportunity to right the ship against a miserable Falcons team.

Cincinnati at BUFFALO: As hard as it is for me to pick the Bills, I just don't have any faith in the Bengals anymore.

Carolina at TENNESSEE: Carolina hasn't lost on the road yet, but the Titans are their toughest road opponent yet.

GREEN BAY at Kansas City: I just can't see the Chiefs scoring enough to pull this one out.

SAN DIEGO at Minnesota: With three straight wins, the Chargers appear to be on their way back, but the real test is next week against the Colts.

Jacksonville at NEW ORLEANS: There are simply too many things working against the Jaguars to pick them here. They're already starting Quinn Gray at quarterback, and now they may be without Marcus Stroud. To top it off, they're on the road against a team that has won three straight.

WASHINGTON at New York Jets: This should be a nice recovery game for the Redskins after their whipping at the hands of the Patriots last week.

ARIZONA at Tampa Bay: All but one of the Cardinals' games this year have been decided by a touchdown or less, so if nothing else, this should be a close game.

Seattle at CLEVELAND: This is a huge game for both teams, and although I'm not sold on the Browns, home field should give them the edge.

NEW ENGLAND at Indianapolis: I'd like to pick the Colts, but I have to stick to my vow not to pick against the Patriots again until they lose.

Houston at OAKLAND: I trust home field advantage more than I trust either of these teams.

DALLAS at Philadelphia: Too much has been going wrong for the Eagles, while the Cowboys have had two weeks to prepare for this one.

Baltimore at PITTSBURGH: Baltimore is too old and too hurt to win this one.

Week 9 picks

Here we go:

Chicago over Detroit: Time to make the division a bit more interesting.
Pittsburgh over Cincy: The worst defence in the NFL will not stop Willy Parker
Indy over Carolina: Because this team won't be looking ahead...
Tennesse over Oakland: VY is back, come on, thats all you need
Cleveland over St.Louis: Derek Anderson is the only reason I am picking this way
New York Giants over Miami: This BETTER come true....
San Diego over Houston: Because the fact this game is a push makes absolutely no sense
Tampa Bay over Jacksonville: Home vs Quinn Gray, come on.
San Francisco over New Orleans: Time to pick an upset in here some where.
New York Jets over Buffalo: Because both of this teams are equally bad...
Minnesota over Philly: Easy, Adrian Peterson is better than anything Philly has
New England over Washington: They will be looking ahead, and will be challenged, but will not lose
Denver over Greenbay: Easy, because Favre's run is done

Week 8 Picks

As always, winners in BOLD CAPS:





Detroit at CHICAGO: Because the Lions have been outscored by 31 points this year.



PITTSBURGH at Cincinnati: Because the Bengals have cost me enough this year.



Oakland at TENNESSEE: Because the Titans are better than I thought they were.



Cleveland at ST. LOUIS: Because it just feels weird picking the Browns to win.



NEW YORK GIANTS at Miami: Because the Dolphins are the league's worst team.



Philadelphia at MINNESOTA: Because Adrian Peterson will outperform Brian Westbrook.


INDIANAPOLIS at Carolina: Because even I don't love the Panthers that much.


BUFFALO at New York Jets: Because even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Houston at SAN DIEGO: Because the Chargers look to be back on track.

JACKSONVILLE at Tampa Bay: Because the Jaguars can still run the ball.

New Orleans at SAN FRANCISCO: Because the 49ers are at home.

Washington at NEW ENGLAND: Because I'm not picking against the Patriots until they lose.

Green Bay at DENVER: Because Favre can only do so much.

Week 7 Picks

Lets rush threw this, seeing I am lazy.

Tennesse over Houston: Come on, we have all seen the new Houston now
Detroit over Tampa Bay: I have no real idea who will win this game.
New England over Miami: No brainer
New Orleans over Atlanta: One of my winner pool picks
New York Giants over San Fran: 9.5 favorites these Giants are
Baltimore over Buffalo: McGahee's revenge
Arizona over Washington: Why, because I always pick Arizona, and it never works
Kansas City over Oakland: I just hope this comes true
Cincy over NYJ: Two most underachieving teams go head to head
Philly over Chicago: When in doubt, take home
Seattle over St.Louis: My other and Elyse's winner pool pick
Dallas over Minnesota: I want to pick the upset so bad....
Pittsburgh over Denver: Denver is plummeting fast
Indianapolis over Jacksonville: Because Indy is destined to always lead the AFC South

Week 6 Picks

Qucik Run here

Tennessee over Tampa: How is Tennessee an underdog at all, I wonder
Chicago over Minnesota: Need to see more of Minny first
Jacksonville over Houston: Gerrard an AFC probowler, I think so (still no interceptions)
Cleveland over Miami: One of my winner pool picks
Baltimore over St.Louis: I just wish I trust Baltimore more
Washington over Greenbay: Big game here, even bigger than the game everyones talking about
Cincinatti over KC: I don't trust either team at all
Philadelphia over NYJ: I wish the Eagles were more consistant, but not like the Jets who are just consistant at losing
Arizona over Carolina: If Arizona's playing, I am probably picking them
San Diego over Oakland: My other winner pool pick
New England over Dallas: It is going to be a shallacking
Seattle over New Orleans: New Orleans is just real bad, real real bad
New York Giants over Atlanta: I love ya Joey, but you are no Eli in talent.

Week 6 Picks

Winners in BOLD CAPS


Minnesota at CHICAGO

Miami at CLEVELAND

WASHINGTON at Green Bay

CINCINNATI at Kansas City

TENNESSEE at Tampa Bay

St. Louis at BALTIMORE

HOUSTON at Jacksonville

PHILADELPHIA at New York Jets

CAROLINA at Arizona

Oakland at SAN DIEGO

NEW ENGLAND at Dallas

New Orleans at SEATTLE

NEW YORK GIANTS at Atlanta

Week 6 Picks

First off, congratulations to Jim Harbaugh on getting the coaching win of his career yesterday as he upset the terrible USC team with superb coaching and I now know with certainty that one day I want him at least as an assistant coach for the Colts. High class guy, proud of the way he plays, and plays hard. Anyway, onto the picks.

Tennessee over Atlanta: Easy, this is my winner pool pick, so I better pick it here too.
Miami over Houston: Why? Miami is the worst team in the NFL, which means they'll win
Jacksonville over Kansas City: Easy, Jax is way better than KC
Arizona over St.Louis: I honestly think I might have picked Arizona every single week so far
New England over Cleveland: There is no reason to say anything here
Carolina over New Orleans: You need "D" to play football
New York G's over New York J's: It's simple, Giants are just a better team
Pittsburgh over Seattle: Home and AFC, thats all you need to konw
Detroit over Washington: Two of the teams I still need to figure out.
Indy over Tampa Bay: I KNOW I've picked Indy every week
Denver over San Diego: This is more a pick against SD then a pick for Denver
Baltimore over San Fran: SF is just a plain bad team, especially with T.Dilfer
Chicago over Greenbay: Sooner or later GB will lose, and I will be picking against them until then
Dallas over Buffalo: Buffalo may be home, but that doesn't make that big a difference in talent.

Week 5 Picks

Winners in BOLD CAPS|:


Miami at HOUSTON

Atlanta at TENNESSEE

JACKSONVILLE at Kansas City

NEW YORK JETS at New York Giants

CAROLINA at New Orleans

ARIZONA at St. Louis

Cleveland at NEW ENGLAND

Seattle at PITTSBURGH

DETROIT at Washington

Tampa Bay at INDIANAPOLIS

SAN DIEGO at Denver

Baltimore at SAN FRANCISCO

CHICAGO at Green Bay

DALLAS at Buffalo

MLB Playoff Preview

I love the opening rounds of the MLB Playoffs. With games today at 3, 6:30, and 10, I have a full day of baseball watching ahead of me. Sure, you can argue that the MLB doesn't do a lot of things right, but there's nothing like a healthy does of playoff sports to give you that little extra boost on hump day to carry you through towards the weekend. What follows are some of my ramblings, observations, and yes, picks, for each of the four LDS series. I'll be doing these one series at a time in order to squeeze them all in before each series kicks off, so check back later if all four series picks aren't up yet.


Phillies - Rockies

Biggest Storyline - Momentum: In the match-up of "who's hotter?" the Rockies have the edge. Winners of 14 of their last 15, including the last in such dramatic - and controversial - fashion, no team enters these playoffs on as much of a high as the Rockies do. If any team can come close, though, it's the Phillies, who also enter on something of a roll themselves, having rallied from down 7 games in September to win the division, a feat matched by only two other teams since 1900.

Prediction: Phillies in 5


Red Sox - Angels

Biggest Storyline - ? I can't think of what the big story will be here. The Red Sox weren't stellar down the stretch, but still took the AL East. For me, this series boils down to which team's big three will have the better starts. Can the Angels' pair of Cy Young contenders (John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar) join with Jered Weaver to outperform the likes of fellow Cy contender Josh Beckett, former post-season hero Curt Schilling, and post-season rookie Dice-K?

Prediction: Angels in 4


Cubs - Diamondbacks

Biggest Storyline - 1908: Whenever the Cubs are involved in a playoff series, the focus will inevitably turn at some point to the longest championship drought in major sport history. At some point during the series we'll hear the obligatory "will this be the year for the Cubbies?" references. The further the Cubs advance, the greater the saturation of 1908 comments will be. I'll put the over-under on these at 5 1/2 for game one tonight. If they were to make it to the World Series, that number would be something like 1,452 1/2. This isn't to say that there aren't other story lines here, just that the Cubs perpetual ineptitude will overshadow them all.

Prediction: Cubs in 4

Indians Love

Well, seeing the NL is not fully set yet (and if San Diego gets in, they're pitching makes anything possible) jts time to do a quick glance at the AL coming into the playoffs.

Boston: I think they are the biggest non-contender in the AL. There pitching is one man deep, and despite his record (Wins, which has much to do with hitting as him) I am not even sold that he is a top five pitcher on the AL playoff teams. Their hitting, its entirely possible that it could finally get hot, but it still hasn't happened yet for Manny and Ortiz, and even Youkilis has been average of late. Their bullpen is good on paper, but who knows how Gagne or Papelbon will hold up this playoffs, and basically, yeah. They are a no-contender

New York Yankees: Two reasons they won't move on, Bullpen and an unstoppable opponent. Quite frankly, if it was Yankees-Anaheim it would be a tough call seeing how hot the Yankees are, but they are playing a team nearly as hot as them, going against the TWO top pitchers in the entire AL four times possibly, and three of those four with be in Cleveland. And there is no way you are beating C.C Sabathia or Carmona twice out of four games. Plus even Game 3 won't be a given, cause the Yankees will be pitching Clemens or Pettite who could always have a horrible outing. All in all, despite A-Rod the Yankees are not a contender, because you have to have the lead in the 9th to get to Mariano, and who knows if that will happen even once this series.

Anaheim Angels: Not much to say here. A good quality team, who plays smart baseball and has the second best hitter in the playoffs besides A-rod. And they'll beat Boston, but what does it mean... Just the AL East getting dominated, but no one cares about that.

Cleveland Indians: It doesn't matter who they play, NO ONE will even come close to eliminating the Indians. I picked them preseason to win the title, and while there were a few scares along the way, I am more confident now then ever. Really, there is two reasons I am so confident... They have the CY Young Winner, and the CY Young runner up. There is no way you can lose with that. Remember when Arizona won a title with only only Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling... Statistically, both of these guys are statistically better than both of them. This is the best one-two punch in recent playoff history (although I am sure Peavy-Young will get the same statements made about them if they beat the Rocks tonight), and will be untouchable. Add into that a decent hitting lineup with Johnny Peralta, Grady Sizemore, the best Catcher in baseball in Victor Martiniz, Casey Blake (although his errors are a tad bit concerning) and a finally starting to heat up Hafner. How do you beat them? Their middle relief is good, better than most of the playoff AL Teams (specially with how bad Scott Shields has been playing for Anaheim of late) and their closer, while horrible at giving up runs, he lead the league in saves, and did not nearly blow as many as it seemed. All in all, Cleveland will lose around three playoff games TOTAL as they will win 3 out of 4 over Yankees, 4 out of 5 over Anaheim, and 4-5 over the NL joke winner. You heard it here first, Cleveland is the best team easily in the AL.

Week 4 Picks

Little time for these, of course.

Winners in BOLD CAPS.


Green Bay at MINNESOTA

OAKLAND at Miami

New York Jets at BUFFALO

HOUSTON at Atlanta

Chicago at DETROIT

BALTIMORE at Cleveland

St. Louis at DALLAS

Tampa Bay at CAROLINA

Seattle at SAN FRANCISCO

Kansas City at SAN DIEGO

PITTSBURGH at Arizona

Denver at INDIANAPOLIS

PHILADELPHIA at New York Giants

NEW ENGLAND at Cincinnati

Week 4 Picks

Get ready for upset week in Don's picks:

Minnesota over Greenbay: Why? Because I just refuse to accept GB
Atlanta over Houston: Why? Because an AFC South team has to lose an out of division game
Buffalo over New York Jets: Why? Because I am an idiot
Baltimore over Cleveland: Why? Because I am not a complete idiot
Dallas over St.Louis: Why? See above
Detroit over Chicago: Why? Griese is not the solution, just a slight remedy
Oakland over Miami: Why? Cause I think Oakland is talented?
Seattle over San Fran: Why? Because San Fran does not belong at the top of the division
Carolina over Tampa Bay: Why? Because Carolina does belong at the top
Arizona over Pittsburgh: Why? When it comes to Arizona I will do EXTREMELY stupid things
San Diego over Kansas City: Why? Because I was able to resist, but only barely
Indianapolis over Denver: Why? Easy, cause I love Indy, and I am not like Theill.
Philadelphia over New York Giants: Why? Because Philly just looks too good?
New England over Cincy: Why? Have you seen New England play!?!

So there you go, I am expecting to go about4 wins 10 losses this week...

Week 3 Picks

Two things before before I get to the picks.

First, I need to make a public apology to Lawrence Taylor. In an unforgivable act of stupidity with a game of Sports Scene-It on the line, I hesitated to shout out that LT was in the Hall of Fame. Stupid. I should be stripped of my Giants-fandom for this. Unforgivable. Worse than losing the game is how I lost it: by failing to recall that one of my all-time favorites, not to mention an all-time great on my favorite team, is in the Hall of Fame. I am shamed. This is like forgetting a parent's birthday. Sure, you can still get them a great gift one day later, but nothing can replace the shame you feel for forgetting in the first place. LT, I still love you, and I'm sorry. I'll never make this mistake again.

Second, some record keeping:

Week One record: 12-4
Week Two record: 8-8

Season-to-date: 20-12

As you can see, Week One worked out pretty well for me. Last week, not so much. Here's hoping for a better Week 3:


Buffalo at New England:

The spread for this game is 16.5 points?! The Patriots have started the season so well, it seems, that not only do we expect them to win, we expect them to win with authority, playing as if they are in a different league as any of their opponents. Their utter dominance is bound to stop sometime. They'll play a few games this year that get close and remind us of that whole "Any given Sunday" thing. Not only that, but there is no way this team is going 16-0, or even 15-1. 14-2 is possible, but I still think they'll drop a couple along the way. This game, however, won't be one of them. Pick: New England

Miami at New York Jets:

The Jets have failed to sack an opponent or force a turnover yet this year. Dolphins QB Trent Green, meanwhile, threw four interceptions last week. This game is essentially a must-win for both teams, as the loser will fall to 0-3, possibly 3 games out of the division lead if the Patriots win. Neither team has impressed yet, but neither team has had a soft schedule so far; the Jets' losses are against the Patriots and Ravens, while the Dolphins have lost the Redskins and Cowboys. Three things lead me to give the Jets the edge in this one. First, home field advantage; when I'm in doubt, I'll take the home team. Second, I still think the Jets are a better team. Third, injuries; the Dolphins will be without Zach Thomas while the Jets could be getting Chad Pennington back. Pick: New York Jets

Detroit at Philadelphia:

If you talked to me a few weeks ago, I would have been singing the Eagles' praises, telling you that they are among the cream of the crop in the NFC, and should take the division crown. Now, I'm not so sure, to say the least. It might be a bit early to jump ship after just two weeks, but I'm having a hard time talking myself into this one. Their already depleted passing game will be without L.J. Smith this week, and on defense they'll be missing Lito Sheppard. The Lions, meanwhile, are averaging 28 points a game, 3 points more per game than the Eagles have scored all year. Pick: Detroit

San Francisco at Pittsburgh:

On one sideline sits the 49ers, perhaps the most underwhelming of the unbeaten teams so far. On the other side of the field will sit the Steelers, perhaps the most impressive 2-0 team after New England and Indianapolis. Pick: Pittsburgh

San Diego at Green Bay:

When my thought process for a game is "They haven't been that good so far, but..." maybe I should rethink my pick. Still, I can't help but think the Chargers are due for a big performance. Facing an incredibly tough start to the season, the Chargers have been exposed as no longer the cream of the crop in the AFC. Facing the 2-0 Packers will actually be their easiest test so far. Sure, the Packer defense has been a bright spot, but if they yielded 90 yards (and a 6 yards per carry average) to Derrick Ward last week, imagine what a hungry Tomlinson can do. They've played better than anyone expected so far, but with 15 (yes, 15) players on their injury report, the Packers will be hard pressed to keep the unbeaten times going. Pick: San Diego

Minnesota at Kansas City:

Ugh. I don't want to pick anyone for this game. Here's my current thought process for this one: The Chiefs have to win some time. In fact, lets say they'll win two games this year, just to play it safe. First, I'll rule out any road wins (San Diego, Oakland, Indianapolis, Denver, Detroit, New York Jets). This leaves their eight home games to get two wins. Of these remaining eight games, we can rule out Denver and San Diego. This leaves five games against Minnesota, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Green Bay, and Tennessee as their best bets to win two games. If I rule out the Vikings this week, do I feel confident they can scratch together two wins from among those remaining four games? Not entirely. I am confident, however, that this is my worst method yet for picking a winner. But, hey, even the league's worst teams have to win sometime, right? Pick: Kansas City

St. Louis at Tampa Bay:

For the Rams to win this one, they need to finally get their running game working. Marc Bulger is averaging 41.5 pass attempts a game so far this year, a number that can only come down if Stephen Jackson can raise his paltry 3 yards/carry average. Tampa Bay's ground game has also struggled. Whoever can do the better job to get their running attack started will probably walk away the winner in this one. Pick: St. Louis

Arizona at Baltimore:

Last week, Arizona pulled off the upset playing host to the Seahawks. This game has "why not again?" written all over it. Well, there are a few reasons why not this week. First, this week, they'll be on the road, not at home. Second, Steve McNair may be back. Granted, I'm not a huge McNair fan, and Kyle Boller played well enough (in fact, better than McNair did in week one) in McNair's absence last week to get the win, but I'm not ready to jump on to the Boller bandwagon just yet. Finally, they're the Cardinals. This is what they do. They tempt you year after year with match-ups just like this one, an upset they seemingly should be able to pull off, but will only do if you don't pick them to do it. Pick: Baltimore

Indianapolis at Houston:

Insert obligatory "The Texans could have made this a game, but now there is no hope without Andre Johnson" comment here. Pick: Indianapolis

Cleveland at Oakland:

After just one week this season, I was ready to dub the Browns this year's version of the 2006 Raiders as the official "just pick them to lose and take your free win" team. Last week's outburst seems to have punched some holes into that strategy. The fact that they are playing against a team that so faithfully lost for me last year has me even more confused. With no other reasonable picking scheme to use in this one, I'll make this game this week's karma pick and give it to the Raiders after a retroactively applied Denver timeout took their win off of the board last week. Plus, I'm pretty sure Cleveland used all of their available karma for the next three years to get those 51 points last week. Pick: Oakland

Cincinnati at Seattle:

How many games will the Bengals cost me this year? 2? 4? 8? Their defense HAS to play better this week, right? Pick: Cincinnati

Jacksonville at Denver:

This game is a trap. Denver barely squeaks through the first two weeks with a miracle one point victory over Buffalo and then an overtime win over Oakland. This game is just begging me to pick the Jaguars. The Broncos can only go on earning narrow victories for so long before they finally get tripped up, right? I'm not taking the bait this time. Pick: Denver

Carolina at Atlanta:

On second thought, maybe Atlanta should be this year's 2006 Raiders. Pick: Carolina

New York Giants at Washington:

Let's get this straight: Sunday is supposed to be God's day, right? Well this Sunday, on top of actually having schoolwork to do, the Giants are on at 4 and I have an intramural soccer game at 6. In other words, I get to start watching the Giants get crushed, DVR the rest while I go get destroyed at soccer, and then come back to finish watching the Giants move to 0-3. Apparently God hates me. Anyways, my brother summed this one up best when he asked me, "Who gets to beat the Giants this week?" Pick: Washington

Dallas at Chicago:

Despite what my Bengals picks may lead you to believe, I am a firm believer that defense wins championships. With the exception of games involving Carson Palmer and Ocho Cinco, my gut is to pick the defense. With the league's top scoring offense against one of the best defenses, this is a classic offense-defense matchup. Since I still don't trust Tony Romo and since Chicago is on the side with the better defense, I have to go with the Bears. Pick: Chicago

Tennessee at New Orleans:

Here's a hunch: Playing in their first home game of the season will give the Saints some extra energy for this one. Pair that extra energy with some extra urgency after an 0-2 start, and the Saints should finally break through with their first win of the season. Pick: New Orleans

Week 3 Picks

Here we go.

Indianapolis at Houston: With Andre Johnson, this was clearly the game of the week. To see how our corners adapt against a great WR, it would've been an interesting test. Plus having the two top WR's in the same game. With that said, no Andre Johnson, no chance.
Winner: Indianapolis

Buffalo at New England: 16.5 favorites. That is absolutely huge. Some people would see this, and have an alert come up in their head that somethings not right. But not me. When you have a great team playing a horrible one its bound to happen (although I do expect Buffalo to cover)
Winner: New England

Miami at New York Jets: Kind of a tough game, because there are little things about both teams I like, and big things about both teams I hate (including the Jets bane, McClarens). But as our boy Theill always says "When you have to equal teams always pick the AFC one, and if that doesn't help always pick the home team" (alright thats not a direct quote, but you get the idea)
Winner: New York Jets

Detroit at Philadelphia: Why in the world is Philly favored in this game. I just don't understand it at all. Its plain stupidity, because Philly has looked absolutely HORRENDOUS. So yeah, I am not all behind Detroit, but they look promising, and with them being underdog is just going to fire them up, because it is just rediculous
Winner: Detroit Lions

San Francisco at Pittsburgh: There are many reasons for this pick. 1) Pitt is in the AFC 2) Pitt is home 3) Pitt has actually looked good in their wins... You get the idea. This seems like the easiest 2-0 vs 2-0 game I have ever seen.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

St. Louis at Tampa Bay: Ok, I am not too sure why the media has suddenly fallen in love with Tampa Bay, but they have. Neither of these two teams impress me, but Steven Jackson has to do something at some point (although he is on Sam's Fantasy team, and that is practically a curse) so why not this week.
Winner: St.Louis Rams

San Diego at Greenbay: Alot of people are expect LT to go off for 200 yards this game. I don't. Alot of people expect Favre to solidy his legacy with the record being entirely his. I don't. What I do expect is San Diego to edge out GB in a very ugly game. That is what I do expect (oh, and Philip Rivers to throw more interceptions then TD's, again)
Winner: San Diego Chargers

Arizona at Baltimore: And now its time to throw all reason in the wind. With the big victory over Seattle last week, they have in my mind the inside track to win the division. Plus McNair is back for Baltimore, so the Boller love is over. And hey, why not just go out on a limb, cause I know Thiell will pick a stupid game also.
Winner: Arizona Cardinals

Minnesota at Kansas City: Continuing looking at favorites... How is Kansas City EVER a favorite? I mean, honsetly. They are going against the best run defence in the nation, and what does that mean... Tough game for LJ, and what does that mean... An absolute slaugher. Who picks these Vegas odds, thats what I want to know.
Winner: Minnesota Vikings

Cleveland at Oakland: First of all, congrats to Cleveland. They must've read my column, and were so angry that they just had to prove me wrong. So Derek Anderson went off against an absolute atrocious D. But Oakland is not Cincy, and I expect Josh McNown to play real well. I think Oakland edges out... barely.
Winner: Oakland Raiders

Cincinatti at Seattle: I am very happy to see Shaun Alexander going against Cincy, cause I really need some fantasy points. But I actually do expect Cincinatti to outgun Seattle, because quite frankly, Seattle hasn't impressed me either, and they don't have talented enough WR's to do a Cleveland. But the main reason, cause Cincy is in the AFC.
Winner: Cincinatti Bengals

Jacsonville at Denver: I briefly wanted to pick an upset here, just to do it. But then I remember that I hate Jacksonvilles roster. Denver has looked pretty horrible, but they should get a win at home, before next weeks huge game against Indy. Now thats a big game.
Winner: Denver Broncos

Carolina at Atlanta: Well, I don't really know who is starting this game, whether it be Harrington and Leftwhich, so I have no real excuse just to throw all my marbles behind Atlanta. So yeah, no definite on Harrington means no pick.
Winner: Carolina Panthers

New York Giants at Washington: I've been expecting Eli to completely break out, but did you see that interception last week. Its was definitely ugly, no doubt about that. Basically, I am picking Washington because Jason Campbell will go off against such a horrible pass D, and the secondary should shut down the Giants.
Winner: Washington Redskins

Dallas at Chicago: Man, it seems every week I pick Dallas, despite the fact that I hate them. The thing is, they can really score points, and I expect them to continue that theme against a less than impressive Chicago team. Plus I expect not-so-sexy Rexy to make at least one critical interception, and Benson to make one critical fumble. You can't win games making turnovers like that.
Winner: Dallas Cowboys

Tennessee at New Orleans: The Saints are just plain bad, and part of it is that the hype of Reggie Bush is coming back at them. He has been literally ineffective. The world isn't behind them anymore (in sports you only get one year of sympathy support) and I don't think the home crowd can save them. Plus, unlike Thiell, I know that Defence wins games, and New Orleans doesn't have one.
Winner: Tennessee Titans

This is quick form: I'll give a reason that will cause the team to win, and a reason that will cause the team to lose.

Carolina over Houston: RoW: Julius Peppers RoL: Still a horrible O'Line
Atlanta over Jacksonville: RoW: Joey Harrington RoL: David Gerrard
Indianapols over Tennessee: RoW: Bob Sanders RoL: Going against Bob Sanders
St.Louis over San Francisco: RoW: Marc Bulger RoL: They were horrible Monday Night
New York Giants over Greenbay: RoW: Eli is back!! RoL: Eli is pissed from week 1 loss
Pittsburgh over Buffalo: RoW: They seem to score at all RoL: Dick Jauron
Cincinatti over Cleveland: RoW: Cleveland RoL: Destined to go 0-16
New Orleans over TampaBay: RoW: They'll use Deuce RoL: They have to use Cadillac
Minnesota over Detroit: RoW: Defense RoL: Offence
Dallas over Miami: RoW: Scoring at will RoL: Concussion Green
Seattle over Arizona: RoW: Best team outwest RoL: *See San Fran
Baltimore over New York Jets: RoW: Kyle Boller RoL: Kellen Clemens
Chicago over Kansas City: RoW: Its against KC RoL: Cuase they aren't playing Cleveland
Denver over Oakland: RoW: Can't quit on them yet RoL: Really none, cause I love McNown
New England over San Diego: RoW: Beli-Cheat RoL: Tomlinson (see last week)
Washington over Philadelphia: RoW: Jeff Campbell RoL: I need to take a risk

NFL Week 1 Recap

So I'm about a day late with this, but I thought I'd chime in on some of the bigger story lines from the first week of the NFL's new season.


Kevin Everett: The most tragic story of Week 1 is that of the Bills' Tight End, who suffered a potentially life-threatening spinal injury during a kick return. The latest news indicates that there is a chance he'll walk again, which is just about the best case scenario after his injury. Here's wishing him the best possible recovery.


Patriots: There are two stories to watch here. First, Randy Moss came out of the gate better than anyone could have predicted. I expected him to limp through the first couple of weeks, catch a few balls a game and leave everyone wondering if he'd really make any difference before breaking through in Week 4 or 5 (against either the defensively challenged Bengals or the totally hapless Browns). Instead, Moss bumped that timetable up by about a month with one of the biggest performances (9 catches, 183 yards, 1 TD) of the first week. He won't play like this every week, but if Moss continues to play more like his 2003 self (111, 1632, 17) than his 2006 self (42, 553, 3), just who, exactly, will stop the Pats?

The Patriots of course, may be stoppable, if the second storyline turns out to be more significant than I expect. How much of an impact on the Pats recent success has their spying/cheating/signal stealing had, how long exactly has this been going on, and what will the impact/fallout be now that they've been caught? Of course I don't know the answers to these questions, and until I do, I'll underrate its impact a bit, but this is definitely something to pay attention to.


JaMarcus Russell: The first overall pick in the 2007 draft finally signs. Why does it seem there is always one rookie each year who is willing to sabatoge his season with an ill-advised holdout? This years version is Russell, who will now be lucky to see any playing time this season after waiting until AFTER the season began to sign. On another note, why is Russell's prolonged holdout rewarded with a record contract?


J. Load!: As if the Giants weren't already harmless enough, they lost a starting quarterback, running back, and defensive end during their game against the Cowboys. How long Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, and Osi Umenyiora are all out is as of yet unknown, but the longer it is, the worse the Giants get. The positive side of this story is that we get to see the Hefty Lefty take a few more snaps. Hopefully this time he remembers a) where the first down marker is and b) that he is 285 pounds, so instead of sliding feet first to avoid tacklers, he can just truck anyone who tries to tackle him. It would be especially helpful for him to remember these things on fourth downs.

Cleveland: They suck. Not that this is a surprise. It just bears repeating.


Colts: Along with the Patriots, Indianapolis had the most impressive performance of the week, and unlike their rivals, theirs wasn't dampened by allegations of cheating.


I don't want to let this linger too long, so I'll stop for now. Maybe more later, maybe not. Maybe some updated power rankings later, we'll see.

Eli is a true leader

Man, after watching the game, I realized one thing. Eli Manning is every bit part of the family. He outplayed the rest of the entire Giants team and took them on his back.. The problem, well, the Giants "D" is atrocious, their running game is atrocious, and there could be Joe Montana back there and the Giants would still have lost the game. All in all, Eli showed it out there on the field, and showed that this is the only QB for this team, and not the 1-3 with 7 useless yards of Jared Lorenzan (who also doesn't seem to understand that you're supposed to jump PASS the first down marker and not behind)

Week 1 Points

This is simple... This is a two team NFL. No one else matters at all. Super Bowl XLII will be in the AFC Championship... Colts vs Patriots. Everyone else, quite frankly, was completely unimpressive. The Eagles played horribly, the Seahawks didn't impress against the subpar TB, my superbowl pick Rams are atrocious, and the Bears have no running game. The Chargers have subpar play calling and performance, and while Cutler impressed, you gotta do better than the Bills. The Pats and Colts however... Just way too good. Can't wait to take you down a second straight year Pats in the AFC Championship, or in truth NFL Championship.

Week 1 Commentary

To make up for my lack of comments earlier, I'll try to update throughout the day with some thoughts about today's games.


5:34 PM Less than a minute to go in the first half, and LDT has 9 carries for -1 yard?

4:28 PM I need to ask, what's up with these green dots on the back of players' helmets?

4:12 PM I'm sorry, Bills fans. What an incredible effort by the Broncos to get into field goal range, hustle the field goal unit onto the field, and then nail a game-winning kick as time expired. The game finished in such a rush, the field goal net was still being raised as the Broncos were getting the kick off.

4:05 PM From the announcer of the Bills-Broncos game: "I can't believe Jay Cutler did that." How often we hear things like this will be a telling sign of the sort of year the Broncos will be in for.

3:55 PM The first batch of games are coming to a close, with some of my predictions looking better than others. It's looking like my Houston and Minnesota picks will hold up. As for my upset special - the Jets over the Pats - not so much. Four games right now are within 3 points, should be a good finish to the 1 o'clock games.

3:15 PM Atlanta and Kansas City each got on the board with a field goal, leaving Cleveland as the afternoon's last scoreless team.

3:02 PM Moss is up to 6 catches for 157 yards, including a 51-yard touchdown catch. Think the Patriots are missing that 4th round pick?

3:00 PM Who will be the last team to score this afternoon? Kansas City, Cleveland, and Atlanta are still looking to put their first points on the board.

2:31 PM At the half, Randy Moss has 4 catches for 87 yards. Thought this was worth mentioning.

2:24 PM The first half of the Bills-Broncos game ends with a handful of momentum shifts but ended as a bit of a wash as neither team could turn any edge into points. First, the Bills squandered a huge kick return and a trip to the red zone with a failed screen pass and a sack to set up a missed field goal. Next, the Broncos drive to around the Bills 25, only to set up a Jay Cutler interception. The Bills respond with a short drive to set up a field goal try, only to take themselves out of range with a penalty. The half ends with a J.P. Losman interception that could have been returned if intercepting lineman Elvis Dumervil had any sort of foot speed. An interesting finish, but in the end, it's all for naught as neither team could tack any points on to the board.

1:50 PM It looks like the blowout of the week is coming from Cleveland, where the Steelers lead the Browns 17-0 after the first quarter. Ouch.

Week 1 Picks

These will be quick this week. I'll try to make up for it with some more comments later.


Philadelphia over Green Bay

Houston over Kansas City

Denver over Buffalo

Pittsburgh over Cleveland

Carolina over St. Louis

Minnesota over Atlanta

New York Jets over New England

Washington over Miami

Jacksonville over Tennessee

San Diego over Chicago

Seattle over Tampa Bay

Oakland over Detroit

Dallas over New York Giants

Cincinnati over Baltimore

San Francisco over Arizona

NFL Power Rankings Preseason

Nothings better than some good ol' fashioned power rankings. Anyway, with the draft done, and most rosters getting settled, its time to see how it all played out.

32. Houston Texans: This decision was as predetermined as they come. As soon as they ditched both Dominic Davis and David Carr for unproven Matt Schaub and basically retired Ahman Green. There defense is getting stronger, but this team looks earily like last years Raiders, a team with a far way to go. Andre Johnson will continue to deal with these painful rosters around him. (Predicted Record: 3-13)

31. Oakland Raiders: I think they have some done some good this offseason, as they have started to put together a roster that could legitimately be a challenge in many games. There defense continues to be strong, and their offense can't possibly get any worse. Josh Mcknown will be a step up from Walters, but for this roster they just have to throw Russel into the fray as soon as possible, and hope that they didn't waste as much money on Rhodes as I think. (Predicted Record: 4-12)

30. Cleveland Browns: Can you possibly see how easy it would be to fix this roster. I mean, it glares right at you the obvious of it all, but it just won't seem to happen. Charlie Frye is a good starter, but he will be put on such a short leash he will be wasted. The line got better, but isn't superb, and the defence is mediocre at best. Braylon Edwards and Winslow are both decent for their positions, but not intimidating, and Jamal Lewis is way over his prime. Dallas should be excited to see a nice high pick next season. (Predicted Record: 4-12)

29. Greenbay Packers: Seems like a big fall from their 8-8 season last year, but hear me out. This team seems to extremely overachieve ever year, and it has to be the end of it this year. Their Quarterback is a decade past his prime, their current runningback is Morency, a decent back, but not starter material. The WR's are overrated, and the defence is porous. Somehow they will still pull out some wins, but not enough to impress me. (Pred Rec: 6-10)

28. Tennessee Titans: Another succesful team that I predict to make a big fall. My big problem with Tennessee is while I think they have a talented Quarterback, he got too big too fast, and I think he will fizzle the way Michael Vick did. Also their best defender is gone for the entire year, and their best Runningback was given to the Broncos. They drafted a horrible group of players, and they are going to fall out fast. Plus they are in the AFC, and if it weren't for the Texans they'd be right near the bottom. (Pred Rec: 5-11)

27. Kansas City Chiefs: I am just ripping on these borderline playoff teams. I don't think Huard will be nearly as succesful not coming from the backup role, I feel that they overuse their best player to the point of insanity, and once Larry Johnson goes down (you know he will), this team will lose the rest of its game. Their line isn't as strong as it once was, and their defence may be as porous as it was five years ago. All in all, I am not to up on the Cheifs (Pred Rec: 6-10)

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jeff Garcia came in for the playoff Eagles, and made himself a ton of really undeserved money. I like Jeff Garcia, he knows what he is doing. The problem with him, is he can't take over a game like he did five years ago, and Caddilac can't do for him what Westbrook did for him last year. This team is mediocre, and a mediocre team in the NFL quickly becomes a bottom team. (Pred Rec: 6-10)

25. Minnesota Vikings: I want to be way up on this team. They have the best player in the entire draft in Adrian Peterson, they have a great talented speed reciever in Troy Williamson (similiar to a Lee Evans style), their defence is absolutely amazing against the run, and their offensive line is improving every year. The problem is Tavarius Jackson. Minnesota loves him for some unknown reason, and refuse to think about anyone else. Their backup, Bollinger, also won't help. So with such a weakness in a key position, I can't get to high on them. (Pred Rec: 6-10)

24. Buffalo Bills: I think they have alot of positives on their team. I think a legit top five QB-WR combo is Losman to Evans, and I think they have a strong defensive line. The problem is I absolutely despise their secondary, as it may be the weakest in the NFL, I am not as sold on Pulozny as a linebacker as everyone else is, and there offensive line didn't do much to improve. There is talent on this team, but the other lack of talent on other positions will drag them down. (Pred Rec: 6-10)

23. Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons always seem to do enough to not be completely terrible, and I don't doubt that the same will be this year. Hopefully Harrington will get to start, but that will only happen if Vick is injured or suspended. Warrick Dunn is still a decent runningback, and the defence is decent enough. While not a terrible team, they are not top 20 in the competitive NFL (Pred Rec: 7-9)

22. New York Giants: I love Eli Manning, we all know this, but this team has been horribly mismanaged. Their coach will be every bit as terrible as last year, they are running two runningbacks that are exactly the same (Jacobs and Droughns) and they don't have a top 10 defence to get through those weaknesses. They should still be able to score points though without Tiki, and while I think they will have a worse record then the Falcons, its only because the Giants have a tough schedule. (Pred Rec: 6-10)

21. Jacksonville Jaguars: Oh the poor AFC South. They have way too many weak teams to imagine. First off, Jacksonville can't make up their mind about their QB at all, and even considering Culpepper seems crazy to me, cause it is just going to create more conflict. Their defence will still be strong, but will hang them up to dry, and Taylor was basically healthy all last season, and there is no way that will happen again. So most of their wins will come at the expense of AFC South rivals, but in the end they will be no threat at all (Pred Rec: 7-9)

20. Miami Dolphins: What to say. Last year this team was completely overhyped because of their "big addition" in Culpepper (hmm, sound familiar to the Moss scenario this year). Now they are more under the radar, with a consistant QB in Green, and should be an improved year for Ronnie Brown. However, nothing is set in stone when it comes to this team, cause in paper they look real good once again, but I am not jumping on that bandwagon just yet (Pred Rec: 7-9)

19. Detroit Lions: There are many things I like about the Lions. I like how Kitna has put them on the spot, and is trying to give hope on the fans. I like their runningback situation more than you would expect by looking at the roster (although thats only if Kevin Jones can stay healthy) and I like the way their defence is formed. My problem is, that I have liked all of this before, and who's to say it will all change now. Calvin Johnson is not a savor, but in my mind an overated draft choice, and the line was not improved like it should have. A good team, but still not ready to make that step. (Pred Rec: 7-9)

18. Carolina Panthers: First off, I am sure there is some bias' here cause I have never liked Jack Delhomme as a QB, and while Steve Smith is explosive, you can just as easily double team him, as the other side is a liability. Julius Peppers is still a great defender (although I think he is losing a step here and there) and Deshaun Foster is a decent but not superb runningback. The team has a long way to go, but who knows. I am sure they will contend for a little bit. (Pred Rec: 7-9)

17. Cincinatti Bengals: Much lower than I bet you would've thought, but they have an absolutely atrocious defence in a tough division. I was worried about how to handle the Bengals, so I decided they will do the exact same thing they did last year, win 50% of their games. Rudi Johnson and Carson Palmer will steal them a ton of game, and even some against the best of the best, but that will just show the fans what they could be and not what they actually are (Pred Rec 8-8)

16. Dallas Cowboys: Never a big Cowboys fan, and I despise how overated Tony Romo is (although his fumbled snap, histerical). The cowboys are essentially the exact same team they were before. They don't overly impress me but they have enough balanced talent (particularily on defence) to easily go .500 in an easy division, and the easiest conference. (Pred Rec 8-8)

15. Arizona Cardinals: The first team to come out of sleeper division, the insanely good NFC West. The Cardinals are up and coming as always, but its just to difficult in their current division. Every one of these teams will absolutely beat up on each other, and it will be a tight battle to the end. Leinart is the future QB, and there is no better WR duo outside of Indy. This team should come together, but similiar to the Lions, people have been saying that for a while (Pred Rec: 7-9)

14. Seattle Seahawks: They won the NFC West last year, and they are decent team. Alot of people are predicting one last strong run for these Seahawks, but I just don't feel they are young enough to compete in this competitive division. Hasslebeck and Alexander should both bounce back strong from last season, but the Seattle dynasty outwest is over (Pred Rec: 8-8)

13. Chicago Bears: Yes, they just made the Superbowl, and yes this is a predicted playoff position, but there are some problems. Grossman is still their QB and that is still a huge liability. They let go of their biggest offensive threat in Thomas Jones for basically nothing, and who knows if Benson can carry the load. Also their second best defender, Briggs, is in an ugly hold out. All in all, it will be enough to push the Bears into the playoffs, but be concerned. It isn't the same team in Chicago. (Pred Rec: 9-7 *Win Division*)

12. New York Jets: I didn't know how to handle the Jets. Its hard to rank a team lower that was playoff bound the year before, and had gotten legitimately better, with an actual runningback threat in Thomas Jones. Yet I will anyway. Why, because their schedule was so rediculously easy last year, that they had only ONE upset last year, when they beat the Pats. They are still a good team, but they are my last team out of the playoffs, as they will fall JUST short. (Pred Rec: 9-7)

11. Pittsburgh Steelers: How did I, of all people, allow the Steelers to get this high. Because unlike last year, they won't start as completely bad. Defence can win games, and the Steelers have that, and Parker on offense is a force. Roethelisberger should return to his old, never do anything form, and they have a great backup in Batch. They also are fighting for the one AFC playoff spot up for grabs (as the others all sound pretty definite to me). In the end they will barely edge out the Jets (Pred Rec: 9-7 *Wildcard)

10. San Francisco 49ers: I love the way this team looks. They have rebounded and rebuilt in the perfect way. Unlike many teams who try to keep improving in the minimal way, the 49ers basically bottomed out a few years ago, got Alex Smith and Frank Gore, and then just side the Bills CB, and they have a real good team. They should survive the NFC West and edge into the playoffs. (Pred Rec: 9-7 *Wildcard)

9. Philadelphia Eagles: Westbrook. Do I need to say more? A healthy McNabb moving the ball, and the same strong defence. Now they aren't a superb overpowering team, and will lose a bunch of games here and there, but they will succeed and make hte playoffs once again. Something we have come quite used to. (Pred Rec: 10-6 *Wildcard)

8. New Orleans Saints: It's a slew of NFC Teams right now. The Saints defence is atrocious, but in the NFC that doesn't matter. They have a capable second corner in ex-Colt Justin David (which makes me oh so mad) and Brees is still Brees, the third best QB in the NFL if that. This team is good still, but not great. Enough to win their division though. (Pred Red: 10-6 *Division)

7. San Diego Chargers: Now people get angry. The Chargers are a talented team, no doubting that, and have one of the leagues best players in LT. They have a steroid fueled Linebacker, and a great TE. My problem is Rivers, if it weren't for LT, he wouldn't be able to win a game, and he quickly gives them away. Plus they choke in the playoffs, and the biggest reason why they are so low... They have an absolutely new crew of coaches, and that cannot possibly be a good sign for the future. (Pred Rec: 11-5 *Wildcard)

6. Washington Redskins: And now my rediculous out on a whim prediction... The Redskins will be real good. Ok, everyone calm now down, I am not on drugs, I just believe that this is the year. They may have the best safety duo in the NFL with Landry in the draft, their running game should be strong with Portis taking the handoffs, and Jason Campbell is my prediction for most improved player in the NFL this season. WR is still a concern, but on defence they look good. Can't help but pick them. (Pred Rec: 11-5 *Division/bye)

5. St. Louis Rams: My highest rated NFC team, I really like the way the Rams look for next season. Their WR's are extremely deep, and there is no one better at dilivering the ball in the NFC (besides Brees) than Bulger. Steven Jackson is easily an MVP candidate going into the season, and I actually like their defence. The NFC has problems, but the Rams don't have them (Pred Rec: 12-4 *Division/homefield)

4. Baltimore Ravens: McGahee instead of Jamal Lewis, and this team had a BYE last year. This team improved, and it just makes them scary. McNair, while not incredibly talented or dangreous anymore, can still win games, and with McGahee and their always strong defence, Baltimore will be good once again, and will win their division (Pred Rec 11-5 *Division)

3. Indianapolis Colts: My boys, but I won't put them on top just yet. Now their record is going to be great, cause the AFC South is an absolutely atrocious conference with no depth at all. Their defence lost both starting cornerbacks, their best linebacker, and are paying an inordinate sub for a good but not superb DE in Dwight Freeney. But its the Colts. Manning will be lights out, Harrision is still young, and they have the best offensive line in the NFL. And will Addai is a concern cause its the first point in his career he will be a lone back. Oh and they will beat the Patriots and get the bye, count on it (Pred Rec 13-3 *Division/bye)

2. New England Patriots: Why am I putting them ahead of Indy, despite having them concede the bye. Because in all likelihood its how it will go. The Pats bought alot of players, and because of that they will win alot of games, but they will choke away the one that counts. Their dynasty is over, and Moss will not give them the superbowl. (Pred Rec 13-3 *Division)

1. Denver Broncos: Best team in the NFL, I absolutely believe that right now. Travis Henry gives them their most talented Runningback sense Terrel Davis, Cutler has legit options, and the line is as good as always. And defence, the Cornerbacks with Bailey and Bly means you can't pass against them. They also have statistically a good run defence, so how do you score against them. You don't. While not my preseason Superbowl Champion, they will be the best regular season team. (Pred Rec: 14-2 *Division/homefield)

The First Pick

Let me begin by pointing out three things I love about the first week of the NFL season. First, the Thursday night match up: two great teams, prime time television - it's the perfect way to whet my appetite for a full season of football. Second, the double dose of Monday night games. Why can't we get this every week? Finally, the Giants are still undefeated.

Now, for the pick:

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts

One of 2006's biggest surprises will face a huge test right of the gate. Just as important as who wins this game are the questions it will (hopefully) answer about these two teams. Are the Saints for real? Can they duplicate some of the magic from last season? As for the Colts, are the loses to an already suspect defense really that big of a deal, or will Peyton Manning just up his game that much more. If nothing else, this game should be an entertaining offensive battle; these teams could combine for 60 some points and 700+ yards. As much as I'd like to take the Saints here, I can't do it, certainly not on the road against the reigning champs.

Pick: Indianapolis

Don's Week 1 Picks

Ah yes, a new season underway, and a new competition with my archnemisis Theill. Basically, the final bet is unknown, but redemption will be gotten for that super gross banana experience. So yeah, this year I am going completely for broke. Taking down Thiell completely, and dominatingly and it will all start now week 1. On to the picks:

Saints at Colts: I mean, come on. One of these teams is the potentially the best team in all of football, the other a wannabe version of the same team. The Saints want to be the Colts, in the way of completely mimicking their offensive styles, and all there horrendous defence. Don't forget, Colts have won their first 8 games the past two years, and it will easily happen again. Manning is still the best player in football (Tomlinson still hasn't done anything in the playoffs, so get off that bandwagon) and the Colts are explosive enough that they might not even punt once this game.
The Pick: Indianapolis Colts

Denver at Buffalo: Wow... I am a JP Losman fan, but he is going to have at least 3 interceptions in the first game of the season, and be absolutely smashed. Dre Bly is going to hav ea coming in party, and people will realize how great of an addition he was. Also Travis Henry is just plain sick, just you wait for his breakout season. All in all, this will not be an exciting game in any which way, unless you enjoy blowouts.
The Pick: Denver Broncos

Miami at Washington: Here is my feelings on Miami. They are unpredictable. Ronnie Brown is talented, and I always loved Trent Green (over under on number of concussions this season, 1.5). However, if there is one team I absolutely love as a sleeper, its the Washington Redskins. They are absolutely insanely talented, with a superb secondary, and up and coming QB Jason Campbell, with a great RB duo in Ladell Betts and Clinton Portis. All in all, I think everyone should watch out for Washington, while Miami, not so sure yet.
The Pick: Washington Redskins

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Well, everyone knows my feelings on Cleveland... They are an atrocious team. They have Joe Thomas, but he alone will not repair their line. Their starting QB is only listed as week-to-week, which makes me feel a little wary where that is going, and thier RB is halfway into the grave as far as his career in the NFL goes. All in all, this is too easy a pick even if it wasn't against Pittsburgh, a team with at least some talent.
The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Tennesse at Jacksonville: This is a tough game to predict, as I am super down on both of these teams. The the reason I am picking this game the way I am, is because I feel that Tennessee will fight for something, just for a week. Then we will see how Vince Young is a better behaved Michael Vick, all run and no throw, and how this team has no Running back. But for one week, I expect Gerrard to be so terrible that they'll go "O" and one, and give Indy the clinch already.
The Pick: Tennessee Titans

Kansas City at Houston: Lets look at this logically. One of these teams has Larry Johnson... The other of these teams. Well they have absolutely nothing. So yeah, Houston looks like the worst team I have ever seen in my life, so yeah, lets pick KC even if it is on the road.
The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Philadelphia at Greenbay: Another very simple pick. Westbrook has amazing talent, and can break one free at any point. Greenbay has an absolutely atrocious Runningback duo, and a QB who was good like 8 years ago! Plus McNabb is healthy, although for how long no one really ever knows. So yeah, I really like Philadelphia as a team this season, and I see an easy week 1 win.
The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Carolina at St.Louis: All I need to say is one thing. MARC BULGER. The most underated QB in the NFL, and he can pass for 300 yards at any single time. And thats not even counting in the fact that they have the talented Steven Jackson. Plus Carolina still won't even take the minute risk of putting in David Carr who is twice as good as Delhomme will ever be. So until Carr is in, I won't be picking Carolina too much,
The Pick: St.Louis Rams

Atlanta at Minnesota: Man, I actually like both of these team. Now Minnesota has a great defence like always, and the Runningback duo of Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson looks sick. However, they also have Tarvarias Jackson, who is a painful QB to watch, to say the least. Atlanta, they have Joey Harrington. As soon as I see that name nothing else matters. I always got your back boi!
The Pick: Joey Harrington (err... I mean Falcons)

New England at New York Jets: I am not as up on New England as everyone else is. I mean, Wes Welker and Kelly Washington are going to help a ton if they play them, but using Moss could destroy their way of offense. The Jets are a confusing team to say the least, and they are at home. But the Patriots are still too good, and I don't want to have to eat another banana... EVER... So yeah, I'll be taking the safe one.
The Pick: New England Patriots

Tampa Bay at Seattle: This is my first pick of the winners pool where you have to pick one team to win every week, and if that team loses you are out. In a week of good matchups Seattle is home against this horrible Bucs team. So really, won't waste your time, this will be a blowout.
The Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 30+

Detroit at Oakland: A very tough game to figure out. I think Oakland is very likely to improve greatly, and I think Detroit will under perform. So in all intents and purposes I should be picking Oakland. But hey, maybe Detroit will go 1-0 for a change, and Kitna vs McNown... Well, we know who is more talented there. So yeah, for one week I'll be picking Detroit (although don't get to used to it)
The Pick: Detroit Lions

Chicago at San Diego. An NFC team travelling to a 2007 playoff AFC team. That's all you need to say.
The Pick: San Diego Chargers

New York Giants at Dallas: Now, this pick has no rationale. Every possible reason states that you should take the obvious choice and pick Dallas. On paper they are better at nearly every position, and that isn't even including the fact that they are home. The problem is, I love Eli, and I know he is going to play lights out just to show Theill how wrong he is, and how he will be the Giants savior. So yeah, this pick is for you Eli!!!
The Pick: New York Giants

Baltimore at Cincinatti: See, I am not nearly as up on Cincy as everyone else is. Their WR duo of Chad Johnson and T.J Housh never has completely impressed me. The part of the team that does impress me, however is Rudi Johnson. Despite that, Baltimore has McGahee who wants to show that he is the man of this team, and to do so very rapidly. So yeah, expect alot of running from Baltimore, who will control the clock and win the game.
The Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Arizona at San Francisco: Before this week I was all over the San Fran bandwagon. But then it became to popular, and I started to see the team as it is. Still not ready to make the jump to be elite NFC team (which is equal to mediocre AFC team, incase you were wondering). However, Arizona is even less likely in my mind to make the jump, because every year they look so good. And every year I fall into the hype, and get disapointed. Well not this year....
The Pick: Arizona Cardinals (guess it will be this year once again)

Preseason NFL Power Rankings

It's that time of year again; nothing says fall like football and the hastily thrown together predictions that come with it. Before I get to the list, a few observations I made along the way:

First, when February rolls around, stop me if I talk myself into picking the NFC champ to win the Super Bowl. All last year I told myself that no matter what happened, I would be taking the AFC in the Super Bowl. Of course, when the big day rolled around, I had somehow talked myself into taking the Bears. Come February, please remind me that the NFC is absolutely NOT winning the Super Bowl. It's just not happening.

Second, I can't come to any easy conclusion about who is the best in the league. Each of the elite teams has at least one major question. Things are looking pretty wide open right now, to an extent, as several teams look like legit contenders This should be a fun year.

Third, I can't come up with a clear cut worst team, either. I miss you already, 2006 Raiders.

Finally, I don't know enough about any of this to make anything that resembles a strong set of predictions. You've been warned.

Here we go:


32. Cleveland Browns - I was a little tentative to put the Browns dead last, but that was before I read that they are a splendid 1-11 in division play over the last two years. Can they make it another year without adding to that stellar win total? I say yes.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Yes, they will be worse than the Falcons. Yes, I still love you Chris Simms, even if you're no longer starting, and even if it's only for your papa.

30. Houston Texans - Here's why the Texans will struggle this year: Benching Ron Dayne (who averaged over 100 yards rushing per start!) in favor of Ahman Green. Also, the rest of the team sucks, too.

29. Miami Dolphins - Can someone please explain to me what, exactly, there is to like about this team? Yet another coaching change? A 37 year-old quarterback with a concussion problem? Ted Ginn Jr.? Their defense should keep them in some games, but I just don't see them pulling many of those games out.

28. Detroit Lions - I wrestled with this spot for a bit before finally going with my gut. Jon Kitna will throw for over 4,000 yards again, but it won't matter.

27. Oakland Raiders - Two overpaid running backs are bound to be better than one, right?

26. Minnesota Vikings - With a remarkable run defense (2.83 yards per carry allowed) and a potential future star in rookie running back Adrian Peterson, there are some things to like in Minnesota. Unfortunately for the Vikings, one of those things is not Tarvaris Jackson.

(I have to mention that the Vikings run defense yielded 111 fewer rushing yards PER GAME than the Colts. The Colts happened to win the Super Bowl last year, while the Vikings won six games. I guess the only things this proves is just how bad the rest of that Vikings squad must be. Anyways, thanks to Sports Illustrated for pointing this out.)

25. Kansas City Chiefs - Larry Johnson only gets you so far.

24. Atlanta Falcons - What I don't understand about the entire Michael Vick saga is why more people aren't pointing out that the "star" quarterback's suspension/arrest/time in exile could actually be a good thing for the team. It isn't as if Vick wasn't already a distraction before the dog fighting scandal became public (Really?), and it also isn't as if Vick was a terribly effective quarterback. In terms of passer rating, Joey Harrington represents only a slight drop off, while Harrington actually has a higher career completion percentage. If they can stay focused, they'll surprise a few teams this year (That means you, Giants).

23. New York Giants - The future of this team actually won't be decided for a few more weeks, when my sister-in-law is due to give birth to her first child. If she and my brother do the right thing and dub their player-to-be-named later 'Osi,' as I have suggested, the Giants will benefit from all sorts of positive karma: Umenyiora will break Strahan's single-season sack record, Eli will turn into Peyton, Coughlin will resign (or better yet, be hired to coach the Cowboys), and a return trip to the playoffs won't be out of the question. However if, as I fear, my brother is not the true Giants fan that I hoped he was, I will be in for a miserable season. It's not often that a team improves after it's best player retires, and this year will be no exception.

22. Buffalo Bills - I have no reason for putting the Bills here other than the fact that I have a bad feeling that when the Bills and Giants play this year, it won't be New York coming out on top.

21. Green Bay - Three points I want to make here: First, it's been said several times before, but why couldn't the Packers have given up a third or fourth round pick to get Randy Moss? With the face of your franchise about to retire, shouldn't you be going all out for one last run at things? Second, I don't see much to like about the Packers, but then again, I didn't last year, either, and they surprised me with an 8-8 finish. In a weak division, there's no reason to think they won't be in the .500 range again this year. Finally, Firefox just crapped out on me, but luckily Blogger now automatically saves drafts so I didn't lose my entire post. Thanks, Blogger!

20. Washington Redskins - With Ladell Betts and Clinton Portis, they should be able to move the ball fairly well along the ground, but with a defensive line that mustered just ten sacks last year, and a defense that as a whole forced just a dozen turnovers last year, I don't see them doing too much.

19. Tennessee Titans - They finished last year on a tear, winning 8 of their last 11, but I don't see them finishing much better than their 8-8 record in 2006. Without many weapons on offense, their success hinges on the development of Vince Young, so don't count on the playoffs just yet for the Titans.

18. Dallas Cowboys - I hate them. There defense will be alright, and they've got some weapons on offense, but with Tony Romo at the helm, I don't see them doing too much damage.

17. Arizona Cardinals - Time for the annual "They look good on paper and could be a sleeper in a weak NFC" bit. True, if Matt Leinart can make use of superb receiving tandem Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, they can make some noise in the West. The problem is, although no team in their division appears dominant, all of them appear solid in what should be the league's most competitive division top to bottom. The problem for the Cardinals is not that they won't be able to compete but that among a division of teams all capable of finishing with 7 to 9 wins, they still figure to end the year at the bottom.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers - I'm not sold on the AFC North, and with the right breaks, any of the North's teams outside of Cleveland could compete for the division. For the Steelers to make a serious run, Big Ben has to rebound from a dismal '06 campaign. Even if that happens, I still think that Pittsburgh is a cut below Cincinnati and Baltimore.

15. Carolina Panthers - Even if you're not too high on them, with four games against Tampa Bay and Atlanta highlighting what should be an altogether not too hard schedule, the Panthers have a shot to get back to the playoffs this year. To get there, they'll need to avoid injuries as well as the inevitable quarterback controversy that will ensue if Jake Delhomme hits any rough patches.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars - With one of the league's best defenses, I'm bound to be high on them. Still, I can't really get an accurate handle on them until we find out if cutting Byron Leftwich really was the best way to resolve an iffy quarterback situation. If their defense can keep it up and if they can continue to run the ball well, they'll have a shot at a wild card in the very competitive AFC, but it remains to be seen how David Garrard will fare in a full season as the starting quarterback.

13. New York Jets - I can't believe that I have them this high. They overachieved like crazy last year, and could be even more talented this year. Of course, they won't have their easy '06 schedule to help them to a surprising record. Mangini did a great job with them last year, but this time around they won't be catching anybody off guard. They'll stay in the playoff hunt this year, but come the post season, they'll be on the outside looking in.

12. St. Louis Rams - Here comes another team that I can't believe I have ranked so highly. But when I look back on my list, which NFC team is good enough to take this spot from them? With arguably the best player in their division in Stephen Jackson, the Rams will be good enough to compete for the NFC West title, and in a weak NFC should be right there in the wild card hunt, too. I'm not as high as most on Marc Bulger, and with health concerns surrounding Torry Holt and with Isaac Bruce now 35 years-old there are just enough question marks surrounding this team to keep me from putting them any higher.

11. San Francisco 49ers - Better than the Rams, but not quite ready to jump the Seahawks for the top spot in the West. Like St. Louis and Seattle, the 49ers aren't without their share of question marks but they should continue to steadily improve. True, they overpaid for Nate Clements, but along with other free agent signings the defense should be improved this year. If Frank Gore stays healthy and Alex Smith can continues to progress, the 49ers can make their way back to the playoffs.

10. Seattle Seahawks - The fact that I copped out and ranked three NFC West teams back-to-back-to-back should tell you how I feel about this division. They're no longer an elite team, but Seattle should have enough talent to grab nine wins and possibly a division title.

9. Baltimore Ravens - Unlike last year, I won't be caught off guard by the Ravens this year. Also unlike last year, the Ravens won't be enjoying a 13 win season. Their defense, tops in the league last season, will still be good, even without Adalius Thomas. Still, with some of their key players on the wrong side of 30, I can't help but feel that the Ravens will fall a bit this year, even if - and this is a big if - McNair and McGahee can each stay healthy for a full 16 games.

8. Philadelphia Eagles - Don't ask me where my unlikely love affair with the Eagles came from; I don't know either. With the best player (Brian Westbrook) and the best quarterback (Donovan McNabb) in their division, an NFC East title is well within reach.

7. Cincinnati Bengals - A few points to make here: First, with last year's distraction of having half of their team thrown in jail hopefully behind them, the Bengals should be ready to rebound from a disappointing 2006 season. Next, if you write off last season as Carson Palmer's readjustment year coming off of knee surgery, the offense can reasonably be expected to perform even better this year. Finally, throw in my aforementioned expected decline of the Ravens, and there is no reason why the Bengals can't win this division, unless you count 'lack of defense' as a reason, which, apparently, I don't.

6. New Orleans Saints - Armed with a great head coach in Sean Payton, a relatively weak division, and an explosive offense, the Saints should be able to make some noise again this year.

5. Chicago Bears - I was high on the Bears all last season because I'm a big believer that defense wins championships. Well, since last year, two things have happened. First, I was proved wrong in the Super Bowl. Second, the Bears didn't do anything this off-season that makes me believe they'll be any better than last year. So in short, they'll be good enough again to go deep into the playoffs against NFC foes, but they aren't good enough to challenge the AFC's elite.

4. Denver Broncos - I'm not the biggest Denver fan, but it's hard to look past the fact that this team is competitive year in and year out. Throw in arguably the best cornerback tandem in the league on a defense that began last season as one of the league's best and an offense that always seems to churn out productive running backs, and the Broncos should be in good shape this year. Were it not for the fact that they are relying on a relatively green Jay Cutler at quarterback, the Broncos might be good enough to crack the top three.

3. Indianapolis Colts - Not to disrespect the reigning champs, but their apparent biggest weakness, and reason I felt they couldn't win the championship last year - their defense - hasn't gotten any better this year. It goes without saying that their offense will be among the league's best - they'll be able to score on anyone - but without improvement to the defense, they certainly won't be repeating.

2. New England Patriots - Were it not for the suspension to Rodney Harrison and the injury to Richard Seymour, I'd likely have them ranked first overall. However, these few early loses on a defense that underachieved last year is enough to give me pause before ranking them number one. Along with the Chargers and Colts, the Patriots are among the three elite teams in the NFL this season, and should have a great chance to get to the Super Bowl, assuming Harrison and Seymour return in decent form. The biggest X factor in New England is Randy Moss, who has the potential (read, potential, not guarantee) to provide a big boost to the Pats offense, and all for a measly 4th round pick.

1. San Diego Chargers - As much as it pains me to place a Norv Turner led team first, three facts give me a small bit of comfort. First, the Chargers were the best team in the regular season in 2006. Second, they'll return 20 opening day starters from that 14-2 2006 team. Finally, they still have LT, the game's best player. Can Norv Turner mess this up? Absolutely. But is there any better choice for number one? None that I can see.