Moss

There are two types of trades: one that benefits one team much more than the other (the Dre Bly- Tatum Bell was an example of this trade, or even the Portis- Bailey trade; both of which was Denver gaining a huge advantage) and they trade that benefits both teams. The first Raiders trade I believe was completely unbenificial for the Lions, and I don't like it at all. I know it was too make room for Calvin Johnson, but that was a bad pick anyway. Mike Williams still has potential if you give him a chance, and Josh McNown is an impressive QB, possibly better than the aging Kitna. Plus, the Raiders now have a decent WR, and a QB who is rumored to be starting with the reigns until Russel is ready. Now the second type is one that benefits both teams: For the Raiders Moss was a cancer that wasn't going to help this team move on as when he is unhappy he won't play. And with Moss, Mike Williams was not going to be able to groom. Getting rid of Moss for that 4th rounder they already lost was smart. For the Pats, on the other hand, the trade was amazing, because that gives Tom Brady the perfect target. All in all, for the draft days the Raiders did a great job, and hey, maybe could reach 7 wins... I wouldn't be surprised

Randy Moss

Traded to the Patriots for a fourth round pick. I thought that a side effect of the Raiders - Lions trade would be that it would set the market for Randy Moss a bit higher. Turns out I was wrong. The pick the Raiders gave up to get Mike Williams and Josh McNown was five spots higher than the pick the Patriots gave up for Moss. If Moss can return to form, the Patriots may have just pulled off the steal of the draft.

Raiders - Lions Trade

The Raiders picked up WR Mike Williams (a former 10th overall pick) and backup QB Josh McNown from Detroit for a 4th round pick this year. If you're Oakland, why not? They'll take a flier on Williams and get a solid backup for JaMarcus Russell to boot. If you're Detroit? Well, no one has high expectations for you, anyways.

The Bills

Having realized that I had been vastly overestimating Anthony Thomas' production these past few years, the Bills first round pick of Marshawn Lynch makes a bit more sense to me now. They had to have a running back, and took the best one available the first opportunity they got. If anything, this pick highlights just how bad a move the Bills made in trading Willis McGahee. Not only did they paint themselves into a corner where they had to take a running back, but they got less draft value for McGahee than they had to use to replace him.

Colts

There have been some aboslutely atrocius picks, but the Colts picking Gonzalez is even worse. I don't understand why we are drafting a third slot WR when there are two SUPERB LB's available, and Indy doesn't even have a second round pick. Oh well, I am not the GM so I can't do anything about it, but our defence wasn't improved at all this offseason

Browns Get Quinn

Some of the things I'm reading about the Browns moving up to select Brady Quinn describe the passer as a "franchise quarterback." Isn't such a proclamation a bit premature? If I'm a Browns fan, I'm excited that my team acted aggressively to grab Quinn, but next year, when they'll be missing their first round pick, this trade will be much harder to stomach. All told, this is a great trade...

... for the Cowboys. The Browns will not make the playoffs this year. That "future" first round pick will end up in the top 15, and possibly even the top 10. Whenever a team feels that they have to have someone, they overpay. The Browns could have stood pat and tried to grab a QB at the top of the second round, or, if they didn't like any of the QBs available then, they could have waited and used their first rounder next year to get one. Since quarterbacks are such a gamble (53 % bust rate for first rounders), it doesn't make sense to spend two picks (both in the top 36) to make that gamble.

The beneficiary of this illogical move, of course, is Dallas. They move back 14 spots and pick up an assuredly high first rounder next year. This is the sort of move I had hoped the Giants would make, but of course didn't. Nothing like watching your favorite team's biggest rival do what you hoped your team would do. I am not pleased.

Bulger

Yes, Marc Bulger is a good quarterback. Possibly the third best QB in the NFL? That's laughable. I would take Peyton, Brady, Brees, McNabb, and Palmer ahead of Bulger without thinking twice. Not injury prone? Remember 2005 when Bulger played in only 8 games? Bulger is a good quarterback, who, at 30 years old, likely has a few more effective years in him. Can he play 6-7 more years in the NFL? Possibly, but certainly not at the level he played this past year. As far as I know, he's not locked into a long term contract with the Rams, either.

Yes, Bulger will be a better quarterback than Brady Quinn this year, but my point is that it isn't unthinkable to propose that the Rams could entertain thoughts of picking up a long term solution. My suggestion wasn't that Quinn would take over for Bulger this year, but that, if drafted, Quinn could take over the starting role in 2-3 years, at which point Bulger would be 32-33 years old, around the same age the Rams jettisoned Kurt Warner.

Bulger is just 2 years older than Jake Delhomme, and for his career has a passer rating just 7.2 points higher than the Panthers' QB. One thing that Delhomme has never done that Bulger has, however, is throw 22 interceptions in a season. Take a look at these career numbers:

• Delhomme: 92 TDs / 63 INTs
• Bulger: 95 TDS / 59 INTs

No way is Delhomme as good as Bulger, but statistically, these two are closer matches than you may think, yet no one is arguing that it would be ludicrous to prepare for life after Delhomme.

Anyways, the Rams passed on Quinn, so this is all moot now. Time to get back to focusing on the current picks.

Leon Hall vs Reves

I don't like this pick at all. Reives is not nearly as good as Hall at Corningback, and while they need a WR, Hall is just explosive. But oh well, I am not a Jets fan, so maybe its a good pick, but right now Leon Hall, best player available period.

Marc Bulger

I just read the stupidest thing possibly ever in Thiells posts, as he stated that Marc Bulger is not a long term solution. Behind Peyton Manning and Drew Brees he is possibly the best quarterback in the NFL, and he has a good 6-7 years in his career left. Look at these stats last year alone: 4301 yards last season, 92.9 QB rating, and 24 TD's. He isn't injury prone, and he is the long term solution with him, and he was a pro bowl QB last season. Quinn is not nearly as good as Bulger and never will be. So yeah, don't diss this amazing QB.

Ted Ginn Jr.??

The USA Today had him projected as a second rounder. By their projections, there were FOUR receivers better, and only one (Johnson) had been taken so far. Ninth overall?? Ginn is listed as 5-11, not the sort of size you expect from a high first round receiver.

In other news, good pick for the Texans. He'll be raw, but I like the Texans strategy of building from the trenches with Mario Williams last year and now Amobi Okoye. The downside to this pick is that the O-line might have been an even bigger need, but with Joe Thomas and Levi Brown both gone, there wasn't really an appropriate value left for them here.

Finally, I have to make the obligatory "Where does Brady Quinn go now?" comment. Kansas City? There's a big chance now that Quinn could end up on a team where he won't be given much opportunity to play right away. A handful of teams - St. Louis, Carolina, Baltimore - have decent, but not long term solutions at quarterback, and could stand to draft him with an eye towards starting in 2-3 years. If the Chiefs can unload Trent Green, there could be a spot for Quinn in KC, but he'd have to last until 23rd for that to happen. It would be a great spot for him, with Larry Johnson to take pressure off, but I don't think he'll last that long.

Post number 7

Tedd Ginn number 9... That is just a bizarre pick. It's like the Dolphins want to confuse us all. Now, I think Quinn was a horrible pick, and I am happy to pass on him, but the Dolphins tuck Ginn instead. Just perplexing. Well, maybe the Bills aren't the worst AFC East team now.

First, I want to congratulate Minnesota for getting the biggest steal in the draft, Adrian Peterson with the 7th pick. If he gets playing time he will be a force in the NFC North team, which is a Drew Stanton away from potentially the playoffs (Just something for them to consider)

But anway, here are some quick facts about Calvin Johnson: Against Georgia in a huge rivalry game, 2 catches 13 yards. In a loss against Clemson, he didn't even have a catch. He had 2 catches for 9 yards against a horrible team in Troy. 4 receptions for 26 yards against Samford.
He had 76 catches for 1202 yards, compared to a high second round pick Jarret from USC, who played in a much better confernce whom had 70 catches, and 1015 yards. Also Georgia Tech in a weak AC went 9-5, so in the end I think someone is inflated in non-competion circumstances like the combine.

The Cardinals need to trade down if possible, because they need the Penn State tackle Levi Brown, but 10 picks early is a little pointless. Get like a 4th for it, and your a winner. Its what you need to do

Don Post No.4

So anyway... four pick nows and here is my overview:

1. Russell- Strong pick, I think he can really help Oakland in the passing game and it was the only choice for them with no trade option, I'll give this pick an 8

2. C. Johnson- A horrible pick. First that is the biggest non-need by the Detroit Lions, and they drafted one anyway. Plus, I am not sold on C. Johnson anyway, I just don't think he is a "great player", and I see 1 to 2 pro bowls at max. I'll give this pick a 2

3. Joe Thomas- There were two choice which I would've compeltely supported, and neither was Brady Quinn. I am not sold on Quinn's style, but I am sold on Thomas' blocking ability. Although I love this pick, I am only giving them a 7, cause they needed Peterson more.

4. Gaines Adams- Decent pick I think, but I don't much about Tampas needs at all. He is a good defensive end, and he'll be able to get to the QB, and teams need defence, and Tampa Bay ios one of them. I'll give it a 7, not thrilling, but probably the right one

Gotta Love the Draft...

Gotta love the draft. Leave for brunch, eat, come back, only miss three or four picks along the way. Some thoughts on what I've missed so far...

• How good/bad the Calvin Johnson pick is really boils down to an argument about value vs. need. Do you take the best player available regardless of position, or take from the position of biggest need? Personally, I think the Lions could have done better with this pick, but if Johnson truly was the top player on their board when their pick was up, the question is really about draft philosophy more than anything else. If, five years from now, Johnson is one of the top half dozen receivers in the league and a perennial Pro Bowl contender, the Lions will have made a good choice. Of course, for that to happen, he needs someone to throw him the ball. And given the Lions' recent history with drafting receivers high, this pick could end up another ugly mistake.
• Good pick for the Cardinals, but maybe a bit of a reach. O-line is definitely a position of need for them, and Adrian Peterson doesn't make a whole lot of sense considering the money they spent last year for Edgerrin James, and with Matt Leinart there was no need to take a QB.
• I have to agree with Don for a moment: Peterson could prove to be a huge steal for the Vikings. That said, they almost have to take a QB in the second round now (or find a way to move back into the first round if Brady Quinn keeps slipping).
  

Cleveland actually made the right move.... Joe Thomas was a steal, and they didn't bite on Brady Quinn to keep the most consistant guy in the draft. Plus hes a great family man, as he is out of fishing with his dad. But Clevelands pick... first right move in the draft (although Peterson would also have been amazing)

Don Post No.2

Are you honestly kidding me? Charles Rogers no.2 overall, Roy Williams 8 overall, Mike Williams 10 overall, and now this, a no.2 overall in Calvin Johnson.....Well, key point number "A" Jon Kitna will have to get a pass to Johnson, and that will not happen with their line. So horrible pick number one, is Calvin Johnson

Pick 3

Sure, Adrian Peterson or Brady Quinn would have made sense here, but Joe Thomas may end up paying greater dividends (both short and long term) than either of those two. This is not as bad a pick as the fan reaction in New York made it seem. Still, this is something of a gutsy pick, considering the chants of "Cleveland Sucks" it just incited.

With the First Pick in the 2007 Draft...

... The Raiders will take Russell. No surprise here. I still would have preferred a trade, but if no acceptable deal was available, this pick makes sense. Do the Raiders still go after Culpepper now? If not, where does he end up?

Now, will the Lions draft ANOTHER receiver? I'm hoping they do, if only to see Don go off.

Drooling Over Calvin Johnson

Someone on ESPN, I think Mel Kiper Jr., just called Calvin Johnson an "uncoverable receiver in the NFL." Uhhhh, hyperbole much? It's amazing just how much pundits are talking themselves into falling in love with Johnson. Now, will the GM's do the same thing...

NFL Draft Post 1

The thing with the Raider is if they go along with the plan of picking Russel, I think it is the right move. I mean, if they can't get a trade, it is what they have to do. The problem is, I also think Russel will be a bust in 5 years the way of Couch and Carr because a new QB just w0n't survive in Oakland. But you have to do it, cause you need a QB more than anything. Plus they just spent big money on Rhodes, which albeit stupid, means they are are sold on their Runningback, and you can't draft a lineman with the first pick, so that leaves Calvin Johnson, and you just can't draft a WR so high

What Should Oakland Do?

Let me start by saying that I've always been a fan of trading down, especially for a bad team with multiple needs to fill. If there is even a halfway decent option to trade down available, I think that the Raiders should jump on it. That said, it takes two to make a deal, and without a trading partner, Oakland will end up drafting first come noon.

If they still hold the number one pick, the choice that makes the most sense for the Raiders is JaMarcus Russell. Yes, taking a quarterback is always a dicey proposition high in the draft, but it is a need that the Raiders absolutely have to fill, and soon. Taking the consensus top QB with the first choice would make plenty of sense for Oakland.

Still, if I'm Oakland, I'm keeping all of my options open. Despite the fact that they've signed two free agent running backs in as many years, neither Lamont Jordan or Dominic Rhodes strikes me as a true number one tailback. Even though it would leave them with a glut at the running back position, drafting Adrian Peterson would be, in my opinion, a great choice. Drafting Peterson number one overall however, would be considered a reach by many, so I don't expect the Raiders to take him. If they could trade down though...

Call it the Charger's model. In 2001, San Diego traded out of the top spot, took a franchise (potential future hall of fame?) running back fifth, and still got the quarterback they needed in the top of the second round, and got bonus picks to boot. I'm not saying that Peterson is the next LaDainian Tomlinson, but if the Raiders can get Peterson, a quarterback in the second round, and even something like a third and a fifth round choice for trading down, that would be a great draft.

As I'm typing this, I am reading that the Raiders have said they are prepared to take Russell first overall, so any talk of trading down now is likely moot. They'll be on the clock in less then 10 minutes now, so we'll see soon. Don and I plan on posting throughout the draft, so keep checking back.

NFL Draft

Just to get the ball rolling, here is a must read from ESPN's Page 2 breaking down - by position - the likelihood a first round pick will end up a bust. The three riskiest positions? QB, WR, RB, in that order. In other words, the safest bet is to avoid skills positions in the first round. Do NFL teams adhere to this sort of risk management? Of course not. At least three of the first four picks, and possibly all four, will be skills positions, the riskiest to choose at the top of the draft.

More on the draft later.

- Mark

Let's Go

Don and I like to disagree. In fact, the list of things we disagree on is likely many times longer than the list of things we do agree on. Whether the topic is sports, politics, music, or television characters, Don and I almost always seem to find ourselves on opposite sides of the debate. Ideally, we're going to use this blog to give us a new venue for these disagreements. Look for posts from both of us here, and I hope you enjoy them.

- Mark