Week 3 Picks

Two things before before I get to the picks.

First, I need to make a public apology to Lawrence Taylor. In an unforgivable act of stupidity with a game of Sports Scene-It on the line, I hesitated to shout out that LT was in the Hall of Fame. Stupid. I should be stripped of my Giants-fandom for this. Unforgivable. Worse than losing the game is how I lost it: by failing to recall that one of my all-time favorites, not to mention an all-time great on my favorite team, is in the Hall of Fame. I am shamed. This is like forgetting a parent's birthday. Sure, you can still get them a great gift one day later, but nothing can replace the shame you feel for forgetting in the first place. LT, I still love you, and I'm sorry. I'll never make this mistake again.

Second, some record keeping:

Week One record: 12-4
Week Two record: 8-8

Season-to-date: 20-12

As you can see, Week One worked out pretty well for me. Last week, not so much. Here's hoping for a better Week 3:


Buffalo at New England:

The spread for this game is 16.5 points?! The Patriots have started the season so well, it seems, that not only do we expect them to win, we expect them to win with authority, playing as if they are in a different league as any of their opponents. Their utter dominance is bound to stop sometime. They'll play a few games this year that get close and remind us of that whole "Any given Sunday" thing. Not only that, but there is no way this team is going 16-0, or even 15-1. 14-2 is possible, but I still think they'll drop a couple along the way. This game, however, won't be one of them. Pick: New England

Miami at New York Jets:

The Jets have failed to sack an opponent or force a turnover yet this year. Dolphins QB Trent Green, meanwhile, threw four interceptions last week. This game is essentially a must-win for both teams, as the loser will fall to 0-3, possibly 3 games out of the division lead if the Patriots win. Neither team has impressed yet, but neither team has had a soft schedule so far; the Jets' losses are against the Patriots and Ravens, while the Dolphins have lost the Redskins and Cowboys. Three things lead me to give the Jets the edge in this one. First, home field advantage; when I'm in doubt, I'll take the home team. Second, I still think the Jets are a better team. Third, injuries; the Dolphins will be without Zach Thomas while the Jets could be getting Chad Pennington back. Pick: New York Jets

Detroit at Philadelphia:

If you talked to me a few weeks ago, I would have been singing the Eagles' praises, telling you that they are among the cream of the crop in the NFC, and should take the division crown. Now, I'm not so sure, to say the least. It might be a bit early to jump ship after just two weeks, but I'm having a hard time talking myself into this one. Their already depleted passing game will be without L.J. Smith this week, and on defense they'll be missing Lito Sheppard. The Lions, meanwhile, are averaging 28 points a game, 3 points more per game than the Eagles have scored all year. Pick: Detroit

San Francisco at Pittsburgh:

On one sideline sits the 49ers, perhaps the most underwhelming of the unbeaten teams so far. On the other side of the field will sit the Steelers, perhaps the most impressive 2-0 team after New England and Indianapolis. Pick: Pittsburgh

San Diego at Green Bay:

When my thought process for a game is "They haven't been that good so far, but..." maybe I should rethink my pick. Still, I can't help but think the Chargers are due for a big performance. Facing an incredibly tough start to the season, the Chargers have been exposed as no longer the cream of the crop in the AFC. Facing the 2-0 Packers will actually be their easiest test so far. Sure, the Packer defense has been a bright spot, but if they yielded 90 yards (and a 6 yards per carry average) to Derrick Ward last week, imagine what a hungry Tomlinson can do. They've played better than anyone expected so far, but with 15 (yes, 15) players on their injury report, the Packers will be hard pressed to keep the unbeaten times going. Pick: San Diego

Minnesota at Kansas City:

Ugh. I don't want to pick anyone for this game. Here's my current thought process for this one: The Chiefs have to win some time. In fact, lets say they'll win two games this year, just to play it safe. First, I'll rule out any road wins (San Diego, Oakland, Indianapolis, Denver, Detroit, New York Jets). This leaves their eight home games to get two wins. Of these remaining eight games, we can rule out Denver and San Diego. This leaves five games against Minnesota, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Green Bay, and Tennessee as their best bets to win two games. If I rule out the Vikings this week, do I feel confident they can scratch together two wins from among those remaining four games? Not entirely. I am confident, however, that this is my worst method yet for picking a winner. But, hey, even the league's worst teams have to win sometime, right? Pick: Kansas City

St. Louis at Tampa Bay:

For the Rams to win this one, they need to finally get their running game working. Marc Bulger is averaging 41.5 pass attempts a game so far this year, a number that can only come down if Stephen Jackson can raise his paltry 3 yards/carry average. Tampa Bay's ground game has also struggled. Whoever can do the better job to get their running attack started will probably walk away the winner in this one. Pick: St. Louis

Arizona at Baltimore:

Last week, Arizona pulled off the upset playing host to the Seahawks. This game has "why not again?" written all over it. Well, there are a few reasons why not this week. First, this week, they'll be on the road, not at home. Second, Steve McNair may be back. Granted, I'm not a huge McNair fan, and Kyle Boller played well enough (in fact, better than McNair did in week one) in McNair's absence last week to get the win, but I'm not ready to jump on to the Boller bandwagon just yet. Finally, they're the Cardinals. This is what they do. They tempt you year after year with match-ups just like this one, an upset they seemingly should be able to pull off, but will only do if you don't pick them to do it. Pick: Baltimore

Indianapolis at Houston:

Insert obligatory "The Texans could have made this a game, but now there is no hope without Andre Johnson" comment here. Pick: Indianapolis

Cleveland at Oakland:

After just one week this season, I was ready to dub the Browns this year's version of the 2006 Raiders as the official "just pick them to lose and take your free win" team. Last week's outburst seems to have punched some holes into that strategy. The fact that they are playing against a team that so faithfully lost for me last year has me even more confused. With no other reasonable picking scheme to use in this one, I'll make this game this week's karma pick and give it to the Raiders after a retroactively applied Denver timeout took their win off of the board last week. Plus, I'm pretty sure Cleveland used all of their available karma for the next three years to get those 51 points last week. Pick: Oakland

Cincinnati at Seattle:

How many games will the Bengals cost me this year? 2? 4? 8? Their defense HAS to play better this week, right? Pick: Cincinnati

Jacksonville at Denver:

This game is a trap. Denver barely squeaks through the first two weeks with a miracle one point victory over Buffalo and then an overtime win over Oakland. This game is just begging me to pick the Jaguars. The Broncos can only go on earning narrow victories for so long before they finally get tripped up, right? I'm not taking the bait this time. Pick: Denver

Carolina at Atlanta:

On second thought, maybe Atlanta should be this year's 2006 Raiders. Pick: Carolina

New York Giants at Washington:

Let's get this straight: Sunday is supposed to be God's day, right? Well this Sunday, on top of actually having schoolwork to do, the Giants are on at 4 and I have an intramural soccer game at 6. In other words, I get to start watching the Giants get crushed, DVR the rest while I go get destroyed at soccer, and then come back to finish watching the Giants move to 0-3. Apparently God hates me. Anyways, my brother summed this one up best when he asked me, "Who gets to beat the Giants this week?" Pick: Washington

Dallas at Chicago:

Despite what my Bengals picks may lead you to believe, I am a firm believer that defense wins championships. With the exception of games involving Carson Palmer and Ocho Cinco, my gut is to pick the defense. With the league's top scoring offense against one of the best defenses, this is a classic offense-defense matchup. Since I still don't trust Tony Romo and since Chicago is on the side with the better defense, I have to go with the Bears. Pick: Chicago

Tennessee at New Orleans:

Here's a hunch: Playing in their first home game of the season will give the Saints some extra energy for this one. Pair that extra energy with some extra urgency after an 0-2 start, and the Saints should finally break through with their first win of the season. Pick: New Orleans